{"punk":1041,"name":"CryptoPunk #1041","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1041","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1041.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Hot Lipstick","Mohawk","Vape","Purple Eye Shadow"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":36.9602,"usd":84034,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.205,"high_eth":41.1401,"low_usd":75496,"high_usd":93537},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.8312,"high_eth":45.7927,"low_usd":67825,"high_usd":104116},"sigma_log":0.1071,"multiple_of_floor":1.2162,"n1_eth":30.7154,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":36.4737,"usd":82928,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.7679,"high_eth":40.5986,"low_usd":74502,"high_usd":92306},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.4386,"high_eth":45.19,"low_usd":66932,"high_usd":102745},"sigma_log":0.1071,"multiple_of_floor":1.2162,"n1_eth":30.3111,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":38,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":38,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 4+","terms":[{"pct":23.3,"beta":0.2096,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":14.9},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0245,"term":"attr:Purple Eye Shadow","label":"Purple Eye Shadow","sales_12m":35,"weighted_sales":15.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 4+","seen":{"n":135,"cover1":0.6,"cover2":0.815,"bias_pct":-0.9,"within10":0.763,"within25":0.933,"MdALE_pct":4.5},"thin":false,"sigma":0.054,"selection":{"n":177,"cover1":0.712,"cover2":0.921,"bias_pct":-0.5,"within10":0.819,"within25":0.966,"MdALE_pct":3.4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":22.9,"date":"2021-04-10","block":12214661,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":55,"adjusted_eth":34.8792},{"eth":27,"date":"2021-04-14","block":12239260,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":224,"adjusted_eth":39.9867}],"comparables":[{"eth":42,"date":"2025-07-20","punk":8855,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":26.6578,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":39,"date":"2025-06-25","punk":8855,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.99,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":33.66,"date":"2026-10-01","punk":1165,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5991,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.8,"date":"2026-09-29","punk":1165,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3721,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.99,"date":"2026-08-12","punk":6631,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2998,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-08-12","punk":6631,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.3638,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.98,"date":"2026-07-02","punk":2617,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9994,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.99,"date":"2026-06-27","punk":2617,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5194,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.1851,"type_multiple":{"sales":442,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0107,"median_multiple":1.0107},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Hot Lipstick","sales_12m":88},{"attribute":"Mohawk","sales_12m":75},{"attribute":"Vape","sales_12m":51}],"summary":["Estimate 37.0 ETH (beta), 1σ range 33.2 to 41.1 ETH, 2σ range 29.8 to 45.8 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +23%, Purple Eye Shadow -2%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 4+ sales landed within ±3.4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1041","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}