{"punk":1116,"name":"CryptoPunk #1116","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1116","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1116.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Shadow Beard","Cowboy Hat"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":63.9308,"usd":154910,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":45.0821,"high_eth":90.6602,"low_usd":109238,"high_usd":219677},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.7906,"high_eth":128.565,"low_usd":77031,"high_usd":311524},"sigma_log":0.3493,"multiple_of_floor":2.1037,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":63.9308,"usd":154910,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":45.0821,"high_eth":90.6602,"low_usd":109238,"high_usd":219677},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.7906,"high_eth":128.565,"low_usd":77031,"high_usd":311524},"sigma_log":0.3493,"multiple_of_floor":2.1037,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","block":26353598,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":3,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","block":26353598,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":3,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":299,"ask_usd":668497,"z":4.42,"z_text":"4.4σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2021-08-24T17:36:12.000Z","days_listed":1899},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6},{"pct":95.5,"beta":0.6705,"term":"attr:Cowboy Hat","label":"Cowboy Hat","sales_12m":10,"weighted_sales":2.9}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.15,"date":"2018-01-14","block":4905679,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":21,"adjusted_eth":50.65},{"eth":49,"date":"2021-04-22","block":12292059,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":170,"adjusted_eth":76.7582},{"eth":105,"date":"2021-08-15","block":13031872,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":89,"adjusted_eth":75.9931}],"comparables":[{"eth":95,"date":"2026-07-27","punk":9774,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":89.134,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":79.5,"date":"2026-05-15","punk":3719,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":77.986,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":85,"date":"2024-12-02","punk":3719,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":58.1398,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":75,"date":"2024-11-30","punk":3719,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":56.9813,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40.4,"date":"2026-11-01","punk":7440,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":40.3734,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":60,"date":"2026-10-21","punk":5448,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":58.3115,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-10-03","punk":9872,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":32.2416,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":42,"date":"2026-10-03","punk":4810,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.6899,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.6801,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Shadow Beard","sales_12m":55}],"summary":["Estimate 63.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 45.1 to 90.7 ETH, 2σ range 31.8 to 129 ETH, confidence Low, as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 05:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Cowboy Hat +96%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1116","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}