{"punk":1139,"name":"CryptoPunk #1139","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1139","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1139.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Hot Lipstick","Mole","Dark Hair","Eye Patch"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":31.5687,"usd":71775,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.8581,"high_eth":33.3774,"low_usd":67886,"high_usd":75888},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.2402,"high_eth":35.2897,"low_usd":64208,"high_usd":80236},"sigma_log":0.0557,"multiple_of_floor":1.0388,"n1_eth":30.7154,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":31.1532,"usd":70831,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.4651,"high_eth":32.9381,"low_usd":66993,"high_usd":74889},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.8685,"high_eth":34.8252,"low_usd":63363,"high_usd":79180},"sigma_log":0.0557,"multiple_of_floor":1.0388,"n1_eth":30.3111,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":42,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":42,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 4+","terms":[{"pct":2.8,"beta":0.0274,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":53.2}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 4+","seen":{"n":135,"cover1":0.6,"cover2":0.815,"bias_pct":-0.9,"within10":0.763,"within25":0.933,"MdALE_pct":4.5},"thin":false,"sigma":0.054,"selection":{"n":177,"cover1":0.712,"cover2":0.921,"bias_pct":-0.5,"within10":0.819,"within25":0.966,"MdALE_pct":3.4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":50,"date":"2021-08-06","block":12968131,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":127,"adjusted_eth":30.602},{"eth":50.8,"date":"2021-08-09","block":12989445,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":143,"adjusted_eth":34.0065},{"eth":97,"date":"2021-09-16","block":13233922,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":41,"adjusted_eth":28.5199},{"eth":101.99,"date":"2021-10-30","block":13520709,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":86,"adjusted_eth":30.314},{"eth":99.88,"date":"2021-11-24","block":13675970,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":31,"adjusted_eth":35.2608},{"eth":59.9,"date":"2022-01-14","block":14004820,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":82,"adjusted_eth":29.965},{"eth":60.99,"date":"2022-01-19","block":14032815,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":49,"adjusted_eth":29.5253},{"eth":43.33,"date":"2023-09-27","block":18228380,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":2,"adjusted_eth":28.566},{"eth":44.49,"date":"2023-09-29","block":18244579,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"round-trip-30d","log_index":266,"adjusted_eth":29.3243},{"eth":45,"date":"2023-10-20","block":18392928,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"round-trip-30d","log_index":92,"adjusted_eth":31.1674},{"eth":52.85,"date":"2023-11-09","block":18533373,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":394,"adjusted_eth":29.082},{"eth":37,"date":"2025-01-14","block":21624578,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":218,"adjusted_eth":27.1303},{"eth":46,"date":"2025-04-23","block":22330580,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":7,"adjusted_eth":32.0153}],"comparables":[{"eth":51.999,"date":"2025-07-21","punk":6340,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.5564,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":49.39,"date":"2025-07-21","punk":6340,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9229,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":49,"date":"2026-10-06","punk":5713,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":44.666,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.9949,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":4554,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5876,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.95,"date":"2026-09-05","punk":4554,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":27.95,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.41,"date":"2026-08-20","punk":4711,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.99,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":100,"date":"2026-06-28","punk":2120,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":92.2769,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28,"date":"2026-04-22","punk":4554,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0762,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0274,"type_multiple":{"sales":442,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0107,"median_multiple":1.0107},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Hot Lipstick","sales_12m":88},{"attribute":"Mole","sales_12m":89},{"attribute":"Dark Hair","sales_12m":17},{"attribute":"Eye Patch","sales_12m":74}],"summary":["Estimate 31.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.9 to 33.4 ETH, 2σ range 28.2 to 35.3 ETH, confidence Low, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +3%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 4+ sales landed within ±3.4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1139","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}