{"punk":116,"name":"CryptoPunk #116","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/116","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/116.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Black Lipstick","Earring","Tiara","Clown Eyes Blue"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":52.4651,"usd":119286,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":39.9274,"high_eth":68.9396,"low_usd":90780,"high_usd":156743},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.3859,"high_eth":90.5873,"low_usd":69086,"high_usd":205962},"sigma_log":0.2731,"multiple_of_floor":1.7264,"n1_eth":30.7154,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":51.7745,"usd":117716,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":39.4019,"high_eth":68.0322,"low_usd":89585,"high_usd":154680},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.986,"high_eth":89.395,"low_usd":68177,"high_usd":203251},"sigma_log":0.2731,"multiple_of_floor":1.7264,"n1_eth":30.3111,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":50,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":50,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 4+","terms":[{"pct":70.8,"beta":0.5354,"term":"attr:Tiara","label":"Tiara","sales_12m":4,"weighted_sales":1.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 4+","seen":{"n":135,"cover1":0.6,"cover2":0.815,"bias_pct":-0.9,"within10":0.763,"within25":0.933,"MdALE_pct":4.5},"thin":false,"sigma":0.054,"selection":{"n":177,"cover1":0.712,"cover2":0.921,"bias_pct":-0.5,"within10":0.819,"within25":0.966,"MdALE_pct":3.4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":1.2,"date":"2017-07-11","block":4009394,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":23,"adjusted_eth":102.8229},{"eth":2.4,"date":"2017-07-17","block":4033613,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":5,"adjusted_eth":194.5297}],"comparables":[{"eth":50,"date":"2024-12-06","punk":6932,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.7961,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":45,"date":"2024-11-15","punk":6932,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.5238,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":33.8,"date":"2026-11-03","punk":1721,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.3441,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-10-27","punk":5084,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4916,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.27,"date":"2026-10-24","punk":4140,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5468,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.73,"date":"2026-10-19","punk":5084,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.1113,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.201,"date":"2026-10-07","punk":4140,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3618,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.7,"date":"2026-09-01","punk":2131,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7367,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.5354,"type_multiple":{"sales":442,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0107,"median_multiple":1.0107},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Black Lipstick","sales_12m":95},{"attribute":"Earring","sales_12m":306},{"attribute":"Clown Eyes Blue","sales_12m":66}],"summary":["Estimate 52.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 39.9 to 68.9 ETH, 2σ range 30.4 to 90.6 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Tiara +71%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 4+ sales landed within ±3.4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/116","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}