{"punk":1250,"name":"CryptoPunk #1250","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1250","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1250.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Mole","Hoodie","Pipe","Small Shades"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":117.4179,"usd":266964,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":61.2812,"high_eth":224.9788,"low_usd":139331,"high_usd":511518},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.9831,"high_eth":431.0713,"low_usd":72718,"high_usd":980095},"sigma_log":0.6503,"multiple_of_floor":3.8637,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":115.8724,"usd":263451,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":60.4746,"high_eth":222.0176,"low_usd":137497,"high_usd":504785},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.5621,"high_eth":425.3974,"low_usd":71760,"high_usd":967195},"sigma_log":0.6503,"multiple_of_floor":3.8637,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10,"beta":0.0957,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":89.3},{"pct":-6.7,"beta":-0.0698,"term":"attr:Mole","label":"Mole","sales_12m":89,"weighted_sales":22.7},{"pct":237.6,"beta":1.2167,"term":"attr:Hoodie","label":"Hoodie","sales_12m":20,"weighted_sales":7.1}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[],"comparables":[{"eth":125,"date":"2025-01-07","punk":4757,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":101.345,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-03-30","punk":4126,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0804,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":117,"date":"2026-03-28","punk":4770,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":122.0463,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":199.99,"date":"2025-07-25","punk":7674,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":115.3626,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":250,"date":"2025-07-25","punk":4668,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":144.2104,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":51.8,"date":"2025-06-08","punk":8075,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.5295,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":50,"date":"2025-05-28","punk":8075,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.2473,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.59,"date":"2025-03-21","punk":5999,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7346,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":1.2883,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Pipe","sales_12m":32},{"attribute":"Small Shades","sales_12m":46}],"summary":["Estimate 117 ETH (beta), 1σ range 61.3 to 225 ETH, 2σ range 32.0 to 431 ETH, confidence Low, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Mole -7%, Hoodie +238%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1250","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}