{"punk":1281,"name":"CryptoPunk #1281","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1281","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1281.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Messy Hair","Cigarette"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":32.696,"usd":79225,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.178,"high_eth":35.4242,"low_usd":73124,"high_usd":85836},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.8538,"high_eth":38.38,"low_usd":67492,"high_usd":92998},"sigma_log":0.0801,"multiple_of_floor":1.0759,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","basis":"daily close"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":32.696,"usd":79225,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.178,"high_eth":35.4242,"low_usd":73124,"high_usd":85836},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.8538,"high_eth":38.38,"low_usd":67492,"high_usd":92998},"sigma_log":0.0801,"multiple_of_floor":1.0759,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"daily close","as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","block":null,"eth":30.39,"punk":null,"public_asks":null,"age_minutes":61,"stale":false,"label":"as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"daily close","as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","block":null,"eth":30.39,"punk":null,"public_asks":null,"age_minutes":61,"stale":false,"label":"as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":52,"date":"2021-12-22","block":13856421,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":1,"adjusted_eth":29.3569},{"eth":69.95,"date":"2022-01-22","block":14053360,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":28,"adjusted_eth":31.493},{"eth":79,"date":"2022-01-25","block":14074893,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":31,"adjusted_eth":30.7994},{"eth":79,"date":"2022-02-02","block":14127594,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":63,"adjusted_eth":32.4653},{"eth":59.95,"date":"2022-05-15","block":14782611,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":47,"adjusted_eth":33.8639},{"eth":65,"date":"2022-06-17","block":14976677,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":486,"adjusted_eth":39.9464},{"eth":72.44,"date":"2022-07-05","block":15085356,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":23,"adjusted_eth":32.882},{"eth":67.5,"date":"2022-10-15","block":15756478,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":121,"adjusted_eth":31.1042},{"eth":72.5,"date":"2022-11-01","block":15878521,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":55,"adjusted_eth":32.9881}],"comparables":[{"eth":28.4,"date":"2025-12-01","punk":8343,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.2051,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":49.5,"date":"2025-10-06","punk":8109,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8892,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":47,"date":"2025-09-23","punk":8109,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.7234,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":52.499,"date":"2025-07-24","punk":9184,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.9153,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":44.69,"date":"2025-07-14","punk":8109,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.1451,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":43,"date":"2025-07-13","punk":8109,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2143,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.8,"date":"2025-02-19","punk":7428,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.0902,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38,"date":"2024-12-09","punk":7094,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.6184,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0095,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Messy Hair","sales_12m":48},{"attribute":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110}],"summary":["Estimate 32.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 30.2 to 35.4 ETH, 2σ range 27.9 to 38.4 ETH, confidence High, as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1281","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}