{"punk":1315,"name":"CryptoPunk #1315","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1315","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1315.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Stringy Hair"],"attribute_count":1,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":31.0976,"usd":75352,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":25.2296,"high_eth":38.3303,"low_usd":61133,"high_usd":92877},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":20.4689,"high_eth":47.2452,"low_usd":49598,"high_usd":114479},"sigma_log":0.2091,"multiple_of_floor":1.0233,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Female 0-1","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T16:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":31.0976,"usd":75352,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":25.2296,"high_eth":38.3303,"low_usd":61133,"high_usd":92877},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":20.4689,"high_eth":47.2452,"low_usd":49598,"high_usd":114479},"sigma_log":0.2091,"multiple_of_floor":1.0233,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Female 0-1","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T16:04:23.000Z","block":26356886,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 16:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T16:04:23.000Z","block":26356886,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 16:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":405,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 0-1","terms":[{"pct":4,"beta":0.0392,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":42.1},{"pct":-2.5,"beta":-0.0257,"term":"attr:Stringy Hair","label":"Stringy Hair","sales_12m":96,"weighted_sales":12.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 0-1","seen":{"n":18,"cover1":0.778,"cover2":1,"bias_pct":13.4,"within10":0.222,"within25":0.778,"MdALE_pct":19.5},"thin":true,"sigma":0.209,"selection":{"n":28,"cover1":0.821,"cover2":0.964,"bias_pct":2.3,"within10":0.607,"within25":0.857,"MdALE_pct":9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.2,"date":"2017-07-08","block":3991461,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":21,"adjusted_eth":20.26},{"eth":35,"date":"2021-03-26","block":12114983,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":10,"adjusted_eth":55.2545},{"eth":74,"date":"2021-08-23","block":13081650,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":57,"adjusted_eth":33.2278},{"eth":99.98,"date":"2021-08-23","block":13084640,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":20,"adjusted_eth":44.8935},{"eth":70,"date":"2022-06-19","block":14990875,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":254,"adjusted_eth":31.9175}],"comparables":[{"eth":35.2556,"date":"2026-10-01","punk":242,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.477,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.47,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":8809,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0225,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.7,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":471,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.228,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.41,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":2876,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3713,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.96,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":6149,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9496,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.7,"date":"2026-09-01","punk":2131,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.1333,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.8,"date":"2026-08-27","punk":2876,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7904,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-08-27","punk":2876,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.041,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.0136,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 31.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 25.2 to 38.3 ETH, 2σ range 20.5 to 47.2 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 16:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 16:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +4%, Stringy Hair -3%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 0-1 sales landed within ±9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±19.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1315","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}