{"punk":1385,"name":"CryptoPunk #1385","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1385","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1385.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Goat","Peak Spike","Small Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":33.2877,"usd":80659,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.6925,"high_eth":36.1023,"low_usd":74370,"high_usd":87479},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.2997,"high_eth":39.1549,"low_usd":68572,"high_usd":94876},"sigma_log":0.0812,"multiple_of_floor":1.0954,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":33.2877,"usd":80659,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.6925,"high_eth":36.1023,"low_usd":74370,"high_usd":87479},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.2997,"high_eth":39.1549,"low_usd":68572,"high_usd":94876},"sigma_log":0.0812,"multiple_of_floor":1.0954,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":42,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":42,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0762,"term":"attr:Goat","label":"Goat","sales_12m":37,"weighted_sales":16.7},{"pct":-5.8,"beta":-0.0603,"term":"attr:Peak Spike","label":"Peak Spike","sales_12m":41,"weighted_sales":14.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.084,"date":"2017-06-29","block":3947343,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":19,"adjusted_eth":18.234},{"eth":0.35,"date":"2017-07-12","block":4009963,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":10,"adjusted_eth":28.3036},{"eth":5.5,"date":"2020-09-28","block":10953182,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":17,"adjusted_eth":28.8679},{"eth":21,"date":"2021-03-05","block":11975714,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":16,"adjusted_eth":35.9544},{"eth":17.5,"date":"2021-03-05","block":11980240,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":131,"adjusted_eth":29.962},{"eth":18,"date":"2021-03-07","block":11988446,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":121,"adjusted_eth":28.0523},{"eth":69.93,"date":"2022-03-20","block":14423507,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":32,"adjusted_eth":29.5368},{"eth":42.69,"date":"2024-11-30","block":21302305,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":264,"adjusted_eth":32.4337},{"eth":44.49,"date":"2024-12-07","block":21351927,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":583,"adjusted_eth":33.8182}],"comparables":[{"eth":31.45,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":8233,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4293,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.53,"date":"2026-10-28","punk":8233,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0366,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.88,"date":"2026-08-21","punk":8332,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7292,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.1701,"date":"2026-06-11","punk":8332,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.9682,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48,"date":"2026-05-17","punk":7925,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":43.8713,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.9,"date":"2025-10-31","punk":8783,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.7808,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":57.35,"date":"2025-08-02","punk":8694,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.2813,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":73,"date":"2025-07-30","punk":7925,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.2049,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0274,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Small Shades","sales_12m":44}],"summary":["Estimate 33.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 30.7 to 36.1 ETH, 2σ range 28.3 to 39.2 ETH, confidence High, as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 06:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Goat -7%, Peak Spike -6%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1385","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}