{"punk":1416,"name":"CryptoPunk #1416","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1416","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1416.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Mole","Earring","Stringy Hair"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":31.4785,"usd":76275,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.0219,"high_eth":34.143,"low_usd":70322,"high_usd":82731},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.757,"high_eth":37.033,"low_usd":64834,"high_usd":89734},"sigma_log":0.0813,"multiple_of_floor":1.0358,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T09:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":31.4785,"usd":76275,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.0219,"high_eth":34.143,"low_usd":70322,"high_usd":82731},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.757,"high_eth":37.033,"low_usd":64834,"high_usd":89734},"sigma_log":0.0813,"multiple_of_floor":1.0358,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T09:04:35.000Z","block":26354795,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":55,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T09:04:35.000Z","block":26354795,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":55,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":745,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-6.7,"beta":-0.0698,"term":"attr:Mole","label":"Mole","sales_12m":89,"weighted_sales":22.5},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.6},{"pct":-9.4,"beta":-0.0983,"term":"attr:Stringy Hair","label":"Stringy Hair","sales_12m":96,"weighted_sales":25.2}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.3,"date":"2017-06-24","block":3920559,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":41,"adjusted_eth":67.5333},{"eth":0.3,"date":"2019-03-28","block":7459277,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":57,"adjusted_eth":26.8147},{"eth":0.4,"date":"2019-09-17","block":8565205,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":153,"adjusted_eth":40.52},{"eth":5.3,"date":"2020-10-24","block":11116069,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":278,"adjusted_eth":43.6496}],"comparables":[{"eth":31.85,"date":"2026-06-13","punk":2595,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.6,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":26.75,"date":"2025-12-15","punk":2595,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9975,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":26.25,"date":"2025-12-14","punk":2595,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.4906,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":30.99,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":9585,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9696,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.62,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":3425,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.6018,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32,"date":"2026-10-16","punk":8871,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3703,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.49,"date":"2026-10-06","punk":926,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.8587,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.849,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":926,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.6314,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0284,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 31.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.0 to 34.1 ETH, 2σ range 26.8 to 37.0 ETH, confidence High, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Mole -7%, Earring -2%, Stringy Hair -9%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1416","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}