{"punk":1417,"name":"CryptoPunk #1417","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1417","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1417.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Stringy Hair","Classic Shades"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":29.9009,"usd":72452,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.3415,"high_eth":31.546,"low_usd":68674,"high_usd":76439},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.8635,"high_eth":33.2816,"low_usd":65092,"high_usd":80644},"sigma_log":0.0536,"multiple_of_floor":0.9839,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":29.9009,"usd":72452,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.3415,"high_eth":31.546,"low_usd":68674,"high_usd":76439},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.8635,"high_eth":33.2816,"low_usd":65092,"high_usd":80644},"sigma_log":0.0536,"multiple_of_floor":0.9839,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":57,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":57,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":{"ask_eth":55.8,"ask_usd":124756,"z":11.64,"z_text":"11.6σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2025-09-14T00:37:47.000Z","days_listed":418},"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":-2.5,"beta":-0.0257,"term":"attr:Stringy Hair","label":"Stringy Hair","sales_12m":96,"weighted_sales":12.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.9,"date":"2020-01-18","block":9308269,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":64,"adjusted_eth":42.7359},{"eth":1.55,"date":"2020-09-14","block":10862300,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":328,"adjusted_eth":24.2807},{"eth":0,"date":"2020-10-03","block":10980250,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":78,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2021-07-30","block":12923962,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":190,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":83.5,"date":"2021-09-16","block":13233440,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":46,"adjusted_eth":24.8781},{"eth":112.88,"date":"2021-09-30","block":13329032,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":86,"adjusted_eth":29.148},{"eth":46.5,"date":"2025-09-14","block":23357780,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":9,"adjusted_eth":29.2151}],"comparables":[{"eth":26.78,"date":"2026-01-02","punk":2782,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0762,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40,"date":"2024-12-04","punk":2782,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.3599,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35.2556,"date":"2026-10-01","punk":242,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.477,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.47,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":8809,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0225,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.7,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":471,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.228,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":37,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":1914,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.0715,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.41,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":2876,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3713,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.96,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":6149,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9496,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.0257,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Classic Shades","sales_12m":64}],"summary":["Estimate 29.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.3 to 31.5 ETH, 2σ range 26.9 to 33.3 ETH, confidence High, as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 06:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Stringy Hair -3%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1417","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}