{"punk":1424,"name":"CryptoPunk #1424","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1424","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1424.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Goat","Headband","Cigarette","Nerd Glasses"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":34.5632,"usd":83749,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.4385,"high_eth":37.9985,"low_usd":76178,"high_usd":92073},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.5963,"high_eth":41.7753,"low_usd":69291,"high_usd":101225},"sigma_log":0.0948,"multiple_of_floor":1.1373,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":34.5632,"usd":83749,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.4385,"high_eth":37.9985,"low_usd":76178,"high_usd":92073},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.5963,"high_eth":41.7753,"low_usd":69291,"high_usd":101225},"sigma_log":0.0948,"multiple_of_floor":1.1373,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":30,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":30,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0762,"term":"attr:Goat","label":"Goat","sales_12m":37,"weighted_sales":16.7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.48,"date":"2018-12-29","block":6973287,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":7,"adjusted_eth":76.7747},{"eth":50,"date":"2021-08-04","block":12961171,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":142,"adjusted_eth":44.0562},{"eth":74,"date":"2023-02-10","block":16601066,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":329,"adjusted_eth":35.5326},{"eth":53,"date":"2023-05-13","block":17252536,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":258,"adjusted_eth":32.5454},{"eth":53.99,"date":"2023-05-17","block":17280574,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":230,"adjusted_eth":33.16},{"eth":53,"date":"2026-10-20","block":26234074,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":335,"adjusted_eth":51.5085}],"comparables":[{"eth":34.85,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":7323,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4364,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":161.5,"date":"2026-09-04","punk":1839,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":159.6612,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.9,"date":"2026-07-23","punk":7323,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.2545,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.5,"date":"2026-05-14","punk":1812,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.0666,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.23,"date":"2026-05-11","punk":3315,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.9899,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.1,"date":"2026-04-01","punk":1812,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.4559,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.1,"date":"2026-04-01","punk":1812,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.4559,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.89,"date":"2026-02-26","punk":7463,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4594,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0651,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Headband","sales_12m":48},{"attribute":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110},{"attribute":"Nerd Glasses","sales_12m":64}],"summary":["Estimate 34.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.4 to 38.0 ETH, 2σ range 28.6 to 41.8 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 12:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Goat -7%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1424","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}