{"punk":1464,"name":"CryptoPunk #1464","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1464","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1464.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Mole","Do-rag"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":32.4381,"usd":78600,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.944,"high_eth":35.1399,"low_usd":72557,"high_usd":85147},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.6417,"high_eth":38.0667,"low_usd":66978,"high_usd":92239},"sigma_log":0.08,"multiple_of_floor":1.0674,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":32.4381,"usd":78600,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.944,"high_eth":35.1399,"low_usd":72557,"high_usd":85147},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.6417,"high_eth":38.0667,"low_usd":66978,"high_usd":92239},"sigma_log":0.08,"multiple_of_floor":1.0674,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":38,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":38,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6},{"pct":-6.7,"beta":-0.0698,"term":"attr:Mole","label":"Mole","sales_12m":89,"weighted_sales":22.5},{"pct":-5.5,"beta":-0.0565,"term":"attr:Do-rag","label":"Do-rag","sales_12m":51,"weighted_sales":17.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.25,"date":"2017-07-07","block":3989546,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":18,"adjusted_eth":25.325},{"eth":91.2,"date":"2021-08-27","block":13108727,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":94,"adjusted_eth":30.1257}],"comparables":[{"eth":28.98,"date":"2026-02-23","punk":6755,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.4944,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48.95,"date":"2025-07-23","punk":2557,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5209,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40.99,"date":"2025-07-20","punk":2557,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":26.3637,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":83,"date":"2025-06-06","punk":9723,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":55.6815,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38.5,"date":"2025-01-31","punk":4841,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0081,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36.5,"date":"2025-01-19","punk":4841,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.1981,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.47,"date":"2025-01-14","punk":4841,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3275,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":37,"date":"2024-12-15","punk":4841,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2136,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0016,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 32.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.9 to 35.1 ETH, 2σ range 27.6 to 38.1 ETH, confidence High, as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 06:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Mole -7%, Do-rag -6%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1464","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}