{"punk":1473,"name":"CryptoPunk #1473","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1473","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1473.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Chinstrap","Earring","Messy Hair"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":31.3452,"usd":75952,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.8875,"high_eth":34.012,"low_usd":69997,"high_usd":82414},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.6225,"high_eth":36.9056,"low_usd":64508,"high_usd":89425},"sigma_log":0.0817,"multiple_of_floor":1.0314,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T09:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":31.3452,"usd":75952,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.8875,"high_eth":34.012,"low_usd":69997,"high_usd":82414},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.6225,"high_eth":36.9056,"low_usd":64508,"high_usd":89425},"sigma_log":0.0817,"multiple_of_floor":1.0314,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T09:04:35.000Z","block":26354795,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":59,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T09:04:35.000Z","block":26354795,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":59,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":745,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-5.3,"beta":-0.054,"term":"attr:Chinstrap","label":"Chinstrap","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":19.3},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":2.8,"date":"2020-12-13","block":11446666,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":172,"adjusted_eth":27.449},{"eth":21.15,"date":"2021-03-21","block":12082691,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":242,"adjusted_eth":30.6217},{"eth":15.6,"date":"2021-05-12","block":12419498,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":18,"adjusted_eth":33.9359},{"eth":14.5,"date":"2021-05-25","block":12505795,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":116,"adjusted_eth":29.774},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-02-03","block":14133634,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":224,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-02-03","block":14133634,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":228,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-05-11","block":14755263,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":142,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-05-11","block":14755263,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":146,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-06-13","block":14955132,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":356,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-06-13","block":14955132,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":360,"adjusted_eth":null}],"comparables":[{"eth":39,"date":"2025-02-07","punk":4204,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":33.4239,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":37.69,"date":"2026-10-07","punk":9706,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.8251,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.4999,"date":"2026-09-25","punk":9142,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1206,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":9142,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2186,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.001,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":9142,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7685,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":4755,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9431,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.745,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":2505,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1203,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.553,"date":"2026-09-14","punk":4755,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.1457,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0327,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Messy Hair","sales_12m":48}],"summary":["Estimate 31.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.9 to 34.0 ETH, 2σ range 26.6 to 36.9 ETH, confidence High, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Chinstrap -5%, Earring -2%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1473","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}