{"punk":1513,"name":"CryptoPunk #1513","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1513","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1513.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Black Lipstick","Mole","Frumpy Hair","Welding Goggles"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":41.2532,"usd":99960,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":35.2371,"high_eth":48.2965,"low_usd":85382,"high_usd":117026},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.0983,"high_eth":56.5424,"low_usd":72931,"high_usd":137007},"sigma_log":0.1576,"multiple_of_floor":1.3575,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":41.2532,"usd":99960,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":35.2371,"high_eth":48.2965,"low_usd":85382,"high_usd":117026},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.0983,"high_eth":56.5424,"low_usd":72931,"high_usd":137007},"sigma_log":0.1576,"multiple_of_floor":1.3575,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":405,"punk":6263}},"listing":{"ask_eth":88.95,"ask_usd":198872,"z":4.88,"z_text":"4.9σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2025-08-14T02:03:47.000Z","days_listed":449},"argument":{"cell":"Female 4+","terms":[{"pct":4,"beta":0.0392,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":42.1},{"pct":29.3,"beta":0.2569,"term":"attr:Welding Goggles","label":"Welding Goggles","sales_12m":4,"weighted_sales":0.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 4+","seen":{"n":135,"cover1":0.6,"cover2":0.815,"bias_pct":-0.9,"within10":0.763,"within25":0.933,"MdALE_pct":4.5},"thin":false,"sigma":0.054,"selection":{"n":177,"cover1":0.712,"cover2":0.921,"bias_pct":-0.5,"within10":0.819,"within25":0.966,"MdALE_pct":3.4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":48,"date":"2021-03-12","block":12023561,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":86,"adjusted_eth":66.3658},{"eth":51.5,"date":"2021-03-15","block":12040068,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":70,"adjusted_eth":78.2543},{"eth":43,"date":"2021-04-08","block":12201859,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":136,"adjusted_eth":66.3672},{"eth":49.99,"date":"2021-04-21","block":12285893,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":292,"adjusted_eth":76.2266},{"eth":95.99,"date":"2022-07-15","block":15146622,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":78,"adjusted_eth":36.9492},{"eth":75,"date":"2023-01-07","block":16354869,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":3,"adjusted_eth":34.0797},{"eth":77.95,"date":"2023-01-28","block":16507934,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":94,"adjusted_eth":35.7462}],"comparables":[{"eth":28.86,"date":"2026-01-07","punk":8973,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5305,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.5,"date":"2026-01-06","punk":8973,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8935,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29,"date":"2026-01-02","punk":839,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4866,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35.99,"date":"2025-11-24","punk":5108,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.316,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48.1058,"date":"2025-10-04","punk":5731,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8964,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":47.49,"date":"2025-10-04","punk":5731,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5137,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":57.95,"date":"2025-09-12","punk":5702,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.7675,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":54.5,"date":"2025-08-09","punk":839,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.1302,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.2962,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Black Lipstick","sales_12m":95},{"attribute":"Mole","sales_12m":89},{"attribute":"Frumpy Hair","sales_12m":59}],"summary":["Estimate 41.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 35.2 to 48.3 ETH, 2σ range 30.1 to 56.5 ETH, confidence Low, as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 12:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +4%, Welding Goggles +29%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 4+ sales landed within ±3.4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1513","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}