{"punk":1578,"name":"CryptoPunk #1578","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1578","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1578.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Rosy Cheeks","Dark Hair","Medical Mask","Blue Eye Shadow"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":31.5303,"usd":76400,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.8217,"high_eth":33.3367,"low_usd":72260,"high_usd":80778},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.2057,"high_eth":35.2466,"low_usd":68345,"high_usd":85405},"sigma_log":0.0557,"multiple_of_floor":1.0375,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":31.5303,"usd":76400,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.8217,"high_eth":33.3367,"low_usd":72260,"high_usd":80778},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.2057,"high_eth":35.2466,"low_usd":68345,"high_usd":85405},"sigma_log":0.0557,"multiple_of_floor":1.0375,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","block":26352999,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":6,"stale":false,"label":"as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","block":26352999,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":6,"stale":false,"label":"as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 4+","terms":[{"pct":2.8,"beta":0.0274,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":52.7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 4+","seen":{"n":135,"cover1":0.6,"cover2":0.815,"bias_pct":-0.9,"within10":0.763,"within25":0.933,"MdALE_pct":4.5},"thin":false,"sigma":0.054,"selection":{"n":177,"cover1":0.712,"cover2":0.921,"bias_pct":-0.5,"within10":0.819,"within25":0.966,"MdALE_pct":3.4}},"own_sales":[],"comparables":[{"eth":26.99,"date":"2026-02-05","punk":7484,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.4323,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":25.25,"date":"2025-12-29","punk":1000,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.611,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":26.01,"date":"2025-12-22","punk":1000,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2974,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":47.4,"date":"2025-07-22","punk":7484,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.326,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.21,"date":"2026-10-15","punk":5893,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.6057,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":49,"date":"2026-10-06","punk":5713,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":45.2617,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30.994,"date":"2026-09-27","punk":5893,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.9664,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.47,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":8809,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0225,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.0274,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Rosy Cheeks","sales_12m":20},{"attribute":"Dark Hair","sales_12m":17},{"attribute":"Medical Mask","sales_12m":12},{"attribute":"Blue Eye Shadow","sales_12m":18}],"summary":["Estimate 31.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.8 to 33.3 ETH, 2σ range 28.2 to 35.2 ETH, confidence Low, as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 03:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +3%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 4+ sales landed within ±3.4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1578","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}