{"punk":1585,"name":"CryptoPunk #1585","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1585","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1585.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Frown","Shaved Head","Small Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":35.3671,"usd":85697,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.2807,"high_eth":38.7485,"low_usd":78219,"high_usd":93891},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.4636,"high_eth":42.4533,"low_usd":71393,"high_usd":102868},"sigma_log":0.0913,"multiple_of_floor":1.1638,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":35.3671,"usd":85697,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.2807,"high_eth":38.7485,"low_usd":78219,"high_usd":93891},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.4636,"high_eth":42.4533,"low_usd":71393,"high_usd":102868},"sigma_log":0.0913,"multiple_of_floor":1.1638,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","block":26352999,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":13,"stale":false,"label":"as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","block":26352999,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":13,"stale":false,"label":"as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0758,"term":"attr:Shaved Head","label":"Shaved Head","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":12.5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.1201,"date":"2018-09-27","block":6408628,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":23,"adjusted_eth":33.1804},{"eth":18,"date":"2021-03-06","block":11981734,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":107,"adjusted_eth":31.2583},{"eth":18,"date":"2021-03-07","block":11991774,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":141,"adjusted_eth":28.0523},{"eth":15,"date":"2021-03-09","block":12007091,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":5,"adjusted_eth":27.6273},{"eth":19.99,"date":"2021-04-13","block":12232260,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":204,"adjusted_eth":29.9998},{"eth":23.99,"date":"2021-04-18","block":12262457,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":87,"adjusted_eth":36.9142},{"eth":25,"date":"2021-04-26","block":12316771,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":141,"adjusted_eth":35.3866}],"comparables":[{"eth":29,"date":"2026-01-03","punk":6953,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.2079,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":58,"date":"2025-11-18","punk":9816,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":56.9506,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":55.97,"date":"2025-08-11","punk":6953,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0049,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":65,"date":"2025-07-28","punk":9816,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.5941,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":47,"date":"2025-07-20","punk":8812,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2292,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":46,"date":"2025-01-31","punk":2727,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.8538,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":43.888,"date":"2024-12-31","punk":8812,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.3026,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.5,"date":"2024-11-13","punk":8812,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0296,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.088,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Frown","sales_12m":40},{"attribute":"Small Shades","sales_12m":44}],"summary":["Estimate 35.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.3 to 38.7 ETH, 2σ range 29.5 to 42.5 ETH, confidence High, as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 03:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Shaved Head -7%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1585","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}