{"punk":1603,"name":"CryptoPunk #1603","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1603","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1603.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Tiara","Purple Eye Shadow"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":53.1016,"usd":128670,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":40.1648,"high_eth":70.2053,"low_usd":97323,"high_usd":170113},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.3797,"high_eth":92.818,"low_usd":73613,"high_usd":224906},"sigma_log":0.2792,"multiple_of_floor":1.7473,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":53.1016,"usd":128670,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":40.1648,"high_eth":70.2053,"low_usd":97323,"high_usd":170113},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.3797,"high_eth":92.818,"low_usd":73613,"high_usd":224906},"sigma_log":0.2792,"multiple_of_floor":1.7473,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":32,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":32,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":405,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4,"beta":0.0392,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":42.1},{"pct":70.6,"beta":0.5339,"term":"attr:Tiara","label":"Tiara","sales_12m":4,"weighted_sales":1.7},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0245,"term":"attr:Purple Eye Shadow","label":"Purple Eye Shadow","sales_12m":35,"weighted_sales":15.4}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":86,"date":"2023-04-20","block":17088530,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":418,"adjusted_eth":52.2603},{"eth":88,"date":"2023-09-01","block":18044783,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":81,"adjusted_eth":55.715},{"eth":74,"date":"2024-03-14","block":19429739,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":148,"adjusted_eth":46.3682},{"eth":62,"date":"2026-10-22","block":26249962,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":79,"adjusted_eth":60.2552}],"comparables":[{"eth":36,"date":"2026-10-31","punk":6370,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.9763,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29,"date":"2026-10-26","punk":2486,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.8955,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-10-24","punk":5264,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":30.687,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30.24,"date":"2026-10-24","punk":5264,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9346,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":6263,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.7661,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.5,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":1859,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.158,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-10-06","punk":6936,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4824,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.42,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":6263,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3806,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.5487,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 53.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 40.2 to 70.2 ETH, 2σ range 30.4 to 92.8 ETH, confidence Low, as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 10:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +4%, Tiara +71%, Purple Eye Shadow -2%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1603","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}