{"punk":1605,"name":"CryptoPunk #1605","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1605","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1605.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Frown","Shadow Beard","Earring","Shaved Head","VR"],"attribute_count":5,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":37.5689,"usd":91033,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.458,"high_eth":42.1849,"low_usd":81071,"high_usd":102217},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.7969,"high_eth":47.3681,"low_usd":72200,"high_usd":114777},"sigma_log":0.1159,"multiple_of_floor":1.2362,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":37.5689,"usd":91033,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.458,"high_eth":42.1849,"low_usd":81071,"high_usd":102217},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.7969,"high_eth":47.3681,"low_usd":72200,"high_usd":114777},"sigma_log":0.1159,"multiple_of_floor":1.2362,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","block":26355395,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":30,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","block":26355395,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":30,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":745,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":82,"ask_usd":183334,"z":6.73,"z_text":"6.7σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2021-12-16T18:56:20.000Z","days_listed":1785},"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.6},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0758,"term":"attr:Shaved Head","label":"Shaved Head","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":12.5},{"pct":22.5,"beta":0.2029,"term":"attr:VR","label":"VR","sales_12m":24,"weighted_sales":3.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.4,"date":"2019-06-20","block":7997909,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":15,"adjusted_eth":28.0092},{"eth":1.2,"date":"2020-05-12","block":10050789,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":31,"adjusted_eth":66.3055},{"eth":6.49,"date":"2020-09-15","block":10863334,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":401,"adjusted_eth":102.1923},{"eth":21.5,"date":"2020-12-24","block":11519340,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":91,"adjusted_eth":157.4422},{"eth":63,"date":"2021-03-14","block":12038154,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":30,"adjusted_eth":91.17},{"eth":60,"date":"2021-04-08","block":12201679,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":168,"adjusted_eth":92.6054},{"eth":75,"date":"2021-05-01","block":12347531,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":213,"adjusted_eth":108.691},{"eth":101,"date":"2021-08-03","block":12954396,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":317,"adjusted_eth":93.0118},{"eth":89,"date":"2021-08-17","block":13042990,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":486,"adjusted_eth":64.3979}],"comparables":[{"eth":39,"date":"2026-04-21","punk":4855,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":42.3289,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":34.4,"date":"2025-12-11","punk":2535,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.9054,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":50,"date":"2025-10-11","punk":4855,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3504,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":47,"date":"2025-07-20","punk":8812,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2292,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":66,"date":"2025-05-26","punk":9494,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":42.8669,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":67.5,"date":"2025-05-13","punk":9494,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":42.7448,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":43.888,"date":"2024-12-31","punk":8812,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.3026,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":40.84,"date":"2024-11-26","punk":2032,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.2831,"shared_attributes":3}],"premium_log":0.1484,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Frown","sales_12m":40},{"attribute":"Shadow Beard","sales_12m":55}],"summary":["Estimate 37.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 33.5 to 42.2 ETH, 2σ range 29.8 to 47.4 ETH, confidence Low, as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 11:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Earring -2%, Shaved Head -7%, VR +23%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1605","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}