{"punk":1613,"name":"CryptoPunk #1613","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1613","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1613.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Earring","Headband","Cigarette"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":33.0842,"usd":80166,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.519,"high_eth":35.8651,"low_usd":73950,"high_usd":86904},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.1527,"high_eth":38.8797,"low_usd":68216,"high_usd":94209},"sigma_log":0.0807,"multiple_of_floor":1.0887,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":33.0842,"usd":80166,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.519,"high_eth":35.8651,"low_usd":73950,"high_usd":86904},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.1527,"high_eth":38.8797,"low_usd":68216,"high_usd":94209},"sigma_log":0.0807,"multiple_of_floor":1.0887,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":7,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":7,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":58.5174,"ask_usd":130832,"z":7.07,"z_text":"7.1σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2025-09-24T22:05:11.000Z","days_listed":407},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":8.1,"date":"2021-02-15","block":11862632,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":172,"adjusted_eth":30.39},{"eth":23.67,"date":"2021-04-13","block":12232566,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":274,"adjusted_eth":35.5225},{"eth":24.99,"date":"2021-05-25","block":12504796,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":82,"adjusted_eth":51.3139},{"eth":43.23,"date":"2021-08-04","block":12956471,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":165,"adjusted_eth":38.091},{"eth":53.2,"date":"2021-08-07","block":12979547,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":70,"adjusted_eth":31.1873},{"eth":63,"date":"2021-08-23","block":13081181,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":293,"adjusted_eth":28.2886},{"eth":119,"date":"2021-09-30","block":13328244,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":35,"adjusted_eth":30.7283},{"eth":55,"date":"2021-12-21","block":13850907,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":84,"adjusted_eth":30.39},{"eth":64.2,"date":"2022-04-25","block":14652325,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"twin-of-nominal-24h","log_index":106,"adjusted_eth":31.4734},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-04-25","block":14652575,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":2633,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":47.5,"date":"2022-06-14","block":14959515,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":409,"adjusted_eth":30.0797},{"eth":53.5,"date":"2022-06-16","block":14971438,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":23,"adjusted_eth":33.2488},{"eth":44,"date":"2025-09-22","block":23420663,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":6,"adjusted_eth":28.6391},{"eth":46.49,"date":"2025-09-24","block":23435764,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"relay-same-block","log_index":4,"adjusted_eth":30.4555},{"eth":48.7645,"date":"2025-09-24","block":23435764,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":8,"adjusted_eth":31.9455}],"comparables":[{"eth":30.89,"date":"2026-02-26","punk":7463,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4594,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":31.85,"date":"2026-02-19","punk":7463,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.4262,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-02-12","punk":7463,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.597,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":45.9849,"date":"2025-07-20","punk":7463,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5763,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":42.96,"date":"2025-07-16","punk":7463,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4042,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":42,"date":"2025-07-08","punk":7463,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1312,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":53,"date":"2025-04-21","punk":3331,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.3493,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":27.62,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":3425,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.6018,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0213,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Headband","sales_12m":48},{"attribute":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110}],"summary":["Estimate 33.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 30.5 to 35.9 ETH, 2σ range 28.2 to 38.9 ETH, confidence High, as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 07:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Earring -2%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1613","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}