{"punk":1621,"name":"CryptoPunk #1621","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1621","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1621.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Black Lipstick","Clown Hair Green","Cigarette"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":29.995,"usd":72680,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.4408,"high_eth":31.634,"low_usd":68914,"high_usd":76652},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.9672,"high_eth":33.3627,"low_usd":65344,"high_usd":80841},"sigma_log":0.0532,"multiple_of_floor":0.987,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":29.995,"usd":72680,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.4408,"high_eth":31.634,"low_usd":68914,"high_usd":76652},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.9672,"high_eth":33.3627,"low_usd":65344,"high_usd":80841},"sigma_log":0.0532,"multiple_of_floor":0.987,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":42,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":42,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":405,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":-2.2,"beta":-0.0225,"term":"attr:Cigarette","label":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110,"weighted_sales":14.2}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":26.49,"date":"2021-03-14","block":12036156,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":191,"adjusted_eth":38.3348},{"eth":50,"date":"2022-06-17","block":14977549,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":51,"adjusted_eth":30.728},{"eth":0.01,"date":"2022-12-04","block":16112014,"source":"native-bid","excluded":"below-half-floor","log_index":2,"adjusted_eth":0.0047},{"eth":67.5,"date":"2022-12-06","block":16122878,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":769,"adjusted_eth":32.077},{"eth":67.98,"date":"2023-01-16","block":16419010,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":218,"adjusted_eth":30.6152},{"eth":41.99,"date":"2023-07-03","block":17614403,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"twin-of-nominal-24h","log_index":2,"adjusted_eth":31.1238},{"eth":0,"date":"2023-07-03","block":17614403,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":6,"adjusted_eth":null}],"comparables":[{"eth":31,"date":"2026-10-26","punk":4381,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8883,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":51.5,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":6326,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":47.7889,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.35,"date":"2026-01-15","punk":2127,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5775,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.98,"date":"2025-11-24","punk":4381,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3998,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35.99,"date":"2025-11-24","punk":5108,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.316,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":49.6,"date":"2025-10-08","punk":9152,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0921,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":75,"date":"2025-08-10","punk":3961,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.9751,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":55,"date":"2025-08-09","punk":4381,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4066,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0225,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Black Lipstick","sales_12m":95},{"attribute":"Clown Hair Green","sales_12m":15}],"summary":["Estimate 30.0 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.4 to 31.6 ETH, 2σ range 27.0 to 33.4 ETH, confidence Low, as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 10:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Cigarette -2%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1621","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}