{"punk":1640,"name":"CryptoPunk #1640","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1640","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1640.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Mustache","Fedora","VR"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":45.6901,"usd":110711,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":37.7929,"high_eth":55.2374,"low_usd":91575,"high_usd":133845},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.2607,"high_eth":66.7797,"low_usd":75747,"high_usd":161813},"sigma_log":0.1898,"multiple_of_floor":1.5035,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":45.6901,"usd":110711,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":37.7929,"high_eth":55.2374,"low_usd":91575,"high_usd":133845},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.2607,"high_eth":66.7797,"low_usd":75747,"high_usd":161813},"sigma_log":0.1898,"multiple_of_floor":1.5035,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":41,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":41,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":22.5,"beta":0.2029,"term":"attr:VR","label":"VR","sales_12m":24,"weighted_sales":3.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.35,"date":"2019-05-06","block":7704130,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":72,"adjusted_eth":24.1739},{"eth":0.95,"date":"2020-01-04","block":9216898,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":20,"adjusted_eth":62.762},{"eth":0.05,"date":"2020-10-08","block":11016395,"source":"native-bid","excluded":"below-half-floor","log_index":286,"adjusted_eth":0.3575},{"eth":5.49,"date":"2021-01-08","block":11615634,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":39,"adjusted_eth":36.2698},{"eth":6.99,"date":"2021-02-09","block":11820329,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":112,"adjusted_eth":36.0044},{"eth":10.99,"date":"2021-02-13","block":11851016,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":29,"adjusted_eth":46.387},{"eth":69.69,"date":"2022-05-12","block":14760294,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":187,"adjusted_eth":42.4},{"eth":99.99,"date":"2022-06-19","block":14991993,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":113,"adjusted_eth":45.5918},{"eth":115,"date":"2022-11-14","block":15970927,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":530,"adjusted_eth":54.1921}],"comparables":[{"eth":34.89,"date":"2026-05-13","punk":6906,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.7138,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36.25,"date":"2025-11-09","punk":7839,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.4106,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":100,"date":"2025-10-27","punk":8407,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":77.9231,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":44.99,"date":"2025-10-18","punk":7839,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0273,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":46.95,"date":"2025-07-07","punk":6867,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.5943,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":52,"date":"2025-06-14","punk":2567,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":36.5383,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":44,"date":"2024-11-22","punk":6867,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.159,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42.69,"date":"2024-11-15","punk":2567,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.1498,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.3441,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Mustache","sales_12m":51},{"attribute":"Fedora","sales_12m":18}],"summary":["Estimate 45.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 37.8 to 55.2 ETH, 2σ range 31.3 to 66.8 ETH, confidence Low, as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 06:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, VR +23%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1640","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}