{"punk":1650,"name":"CryptoPunk #1650","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1650","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1650.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Normal Beard Black","Messy Hair","Clown Nose"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":35.7287,"usd":86574,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.5275,"high_eth":39.2451,"low_usd":78817,"high_usd":95094},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.613,"high_eth":43.1075,"low_usd":71755,"high_usd":104453},"sigma_log":0.0939,"multiple_of_floor":1.1757,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":35.7287,"usd":86574,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.5275,"high_eth":39.2451,"low_usd":78817,"high_usd":95094},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.613,"high_eth":43.1075,"low_usd":71755,"high_usd":104453},"sigma_log":0.0939,"multiple_of_floor":1.1757,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","block":26353297,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":60,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","block":26353297,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":60,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-6.4,"beta":-0.0656,"term":"attr:Clown Nose","label":"Clown Nose","sales_12m":25,"weighted_sales":6.1}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.41,"date":"2017-07-11","block":4007227,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":13,"adjusted_eth":35.5997},{"eth":0.89,"date":"2020-01-21","block":9327105,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":124,"adjusted_eth":39.7751},{"eth":31,"date":"2021-07-26","block":12902035,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":155,"adjusted_eth":42.8417}],"comparables":[{"eth":46.25,"date":"2026-02-23","punk":9762,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":47.0709,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":47.69,"date":"2025-10-08","punk":7019,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8948,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":58.88,"date":"2025-07-29","punk":9779,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.7743,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":58.99,"date":"2025-07-26","punk":9762,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.5062,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":50,"date":"2025-04-21","punk":9779,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.1786,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.8,"date":"2025-02-19","punk":7428,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.0902,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40,"date":"2024-11-14","punk":4446,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.8475,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39,"date":"2024-11-07","punk":9570,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":45.5675,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0982,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Normal Beard Black","sales_12m":21},{"attribute":"Messy Hair","sales_12m":48}],"summary":["Estimate 35.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.5 to 39.2 ETH, 2σ range 29.6 to 43.1 ETH, confidence Low, as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 04:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Clown Nose -6%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1650","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}