{"punk":178,"name":"CryptoPunk #178","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/178","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/178.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Fedora"],"attribute_count":1,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":42.8743,"usd":97480,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.3309,"high_eth":55.1503,"low_usd":75782,"high_usd":125391},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.9118,"high_eth":70.9411,"low_usd":58914,"high_usd":161294},"sigma_log":0.2518,"multiple_of_floor":1.4108,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 0-1","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":42.31,"usd":96197,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.8922,"high_eth":54.4244,"low_usd":74785,"high_usd":123741},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.5707,"high_eth":70.0074,"low_usd":58138,"high_usd":159171},"sigma_log":0.2518,"multiple_of_floor":1.4108,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 0-1","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":37,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":37,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 0-1","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10,"beta":0.0957,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":89.3},{"pct":15,"beta":0.1394,"term":"count1","label":"1 attribute (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":3.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 0-1","seen":{"n":16,"cover1":0.5,"cover2":0.625,"bias_pct":27.5,"within10":0.25,"within25":0.5,"MdALE_pct":27.5},"thin":true,"sigma":0.209,"selection":{"n":35,"cover1":0.714,"cover2":0.914,"bias_pct":6.6,"within10":0.571,"within25":0.714,"MdALE_pct":7.8}},"own_sales":[],"comparables":[{"eth":33,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":2303,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.5442,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":39.9,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":7368,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.518,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":36,"date":"2026-07-03","punk":769,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.2811,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-06-11","punk":2303,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2651,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.5,"date":"2026-06-05","punk":7036,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5214,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":39.99,"date":"2026-05-24","punk":8155,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.0909,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":34.89,"date":"2026-05-13","punk":6906,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.2437,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":34.25,"date":"2026-05-11","punk":4953,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.5961,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.2808,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Fedora","sales_12m":18}],"summary":["Estimate 42.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 33.3 to 55.2 ETH, 2σ range 25.9 to 70.9 ETH, confidence Low, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, 1 attribute (vs 3) +15%.","In the backtest, Male 0-1 sales landed within ±7.8% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±27.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/178","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}