{"punk":1782,"name":"CryptoPunk #1782","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1782","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1782.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Handlebars","Earring","Cowboy Hat"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":60.7145,"usd":147116,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":43.901,"high_eth":83.9674,"low_usd":106376,"high_usd":203460},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.7436,"high_eth":116.1259,"low_usd":76917,"high_usd":281383},"sigma_log":0.3242,"multiple_of_floor":1.9978,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":60.7145,"usd":147116,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":43.901,"high_eth":83.9674,"low_usd":106376,"high_usd":203460},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.7436,"high_eth":116.1259,"low_usd":76917,"high_usd":281383},"sigma_log":0.3242,"multiple_of_floor":1.9978,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":27,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":27,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":690,"ask_usd":1542684,"z":7.5,"z_text":"7.5σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2026-09-25T12:56:47.000Z","days_listed":41},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-6.1,"beta":-0.0634,"term":"attr:Handlebars","label":"Handlebars","sales_12m":32,"weighted_sales":11.7},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.6},{"pct":95.5,"beta":0.6705,"term":"attr:Cowboy Hat","label":"Cowboy Hat","sales_12m":10,"weighted_sales":2.9}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.18,"date":"2018-02-11","block":5070900,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":28,"adjusted_eth":60.78},{"eth":32,"date":"2021-06-11","block":12610311,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":432,"adjusted_eth":64.832},{"eth":46.969,"date":"2024-11-13","block":21175537,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":668,"adjusted_eth":43.3988},{"eth":75,"date":"2025-01-16","block":21638481,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":75,"adjusted_eth":60.4736},{"eth":63.25,"date":"2025-04-10","block":22239131,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":121,"adjusted_eth":45.2275}],"comparables":[{"eth":30,"date":"2026-10-29","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4444,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-10-14","punk":3378,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0508,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-09-17","punk":1607,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.2898,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36.95,"date":"2026-08-21","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.6043,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.6,"date":"2026-07-19","punk":8992,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0695,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-07-06","punk":3378,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.7882,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.44,"date":"2026-07-04","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.2636,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.6,"date":"2026-07-04","punk":1607,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.4135,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.6284,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 60.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 43.9 to 84.0 ETH, 2σ range 31.7 to 116 ETH, confidence Low, as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 12:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Handlebars -6%, Earring -2%, Cowboy Hat +96%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1782","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}