{"punk":1802,"name":"CryptoPunk #1802","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1802","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1802.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Big Beard","Fedora","Cigarette","Nerd Glasses"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":38.1527,"usd":92447,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.8057,"high_eth":43.0588,"low_usd":81914,"high_usd":104335},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.9539,"high_eth":48.5957,"low_usd":72581,"high_usd":117751},"sigma_log":0.121,"multiple_of_floor":1.2554,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T01:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":38.1527,"usd":92447,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.8057,"high_eth":43.0588,"low_usd":81914,"high_usd":104335},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.9539,"high_eth":48.5957,"low_usd":72581,"high_usd":117751},"sigma_log":0.121,"multiple_of_floor":1.2554,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T01:04:35.000Z","block":26352400,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":53,"stale":false,"label":"as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T01:04:35.000Z","block":26352400,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":53,"stale":false,"label":"as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":1,"date":"2017-06-27","block":3938413,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":3,"adjusted_eth":202.6},{"eth":1.75,"date":"2019-06-14","block":7956533,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":59,"adjusted_eth":132.9563},{"eth":5,"date":"2020-05-24","block":10126967,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":68,"adjusted_eth":139.4037},{"eth":59,"date":"2021-04-20","block":12280159,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":256,"adjusted_eth":92.0909},{"eth":129.99,"date":"2021-08-14","block":13025112,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":56,"adjusted_eth":92.9505},{"eth":98,"date":"2022-07-07","block":15095096,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":120,"adjusted_eth":44.1545},{"eth":129.95,"date":"2022-07-13","block":15135294,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":179,"adjusted_eth":50.663}],"comparables":[{"eth":53,"date":"2026-10-20","punk":1424,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":51.5085,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.9,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":7368,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.9917,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":161.5,"date":"2026-09-04","punk":1839,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":159.6612,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.23,"date":"2026-05-11","punk":3315,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.9899,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":37.25,"date":"2026-04-09","punk":6530,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":40.444,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.1,"date":"2026-02-16","punk":3315,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.6264,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":54,"date":"2025-10-31","punk":8530,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":44.365,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":49,"date":"2025-10-27","punk":7012,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":38.1823,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.1639,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Big Beard","sales_12m":7},{"attribute":"Fedora","sales_12m":18},{"attribute":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110},{"attribute":"Nerd Glasses","sales_12m":64}],"summary":["Estimate 38.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 33.8 to 43.1 ETH, 2σ range 30.0 to 48.6 ETH, confidence Low, as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 01:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1802","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}