{"punk":1812,"name":"CryptoPunk #1812","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1812","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1812.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Normal Beard","Earring","Headband","Nerd Glasses"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":36.4094,"usd":88223,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.7302,"high_eth":40.5022,"low_usd":79308,"high_usd":98140},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.4228,"high_eth":45.0551,"low_usd":71294,"high_usd":109172},"sigma_log":0.1065,"multiple_of_floor":1.1981,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":36.4094,"usd":88223,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.7302,"high_eth":40.5022,"low_usd":79308,"high_usd":98140},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.4228,"high_eth":45.0551,"low_usd":71294,"high_usd":109172},"sigma_log":0.1065,"multiple_of_floor":1.1981,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":26,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":26,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":39.99,"ask_usd":89409,"z":0.88,"z_text":"0.9σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2026-09-22T18:29:47.000Z","days_listed":44},"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.5,"date":"2020-04-13","block":9861080,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":120,"adjusted_eth":26.1983},{"eth":0.59,"date":"2020-05-11","block":10044460,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":96,"adjusted_eth":32.6002},{"eth":0.91,"date":"2020-07-31","block":10566229,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":51,"adjusted_eth":31.0729},{"eth":2.2,"date":"2020-09-22","block":10911237,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":226,"adjusted_eth":31.8371},{"eth":5,"date":"2020-12-22","block":11505596,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":147,"adjusted_eth":37.9875},{"eth":24.9,"date":"2021-02-23","block":11914181,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":46,"adjusted_eth":32.3381},{"eth":29.99,"date":"2021-03-15","block":12045972,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":128,"adjusted_eth":45.5698},{"eth":21,"date":"2021-05-13","block":12426285,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":32,"adjusted_eth":44.0131},{"eth":85,"date":"2022-06-20","block":14997725,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":62,"adjusted_eth":37.7102},{"eth":51,"date":"2025-03-25","block":22126635,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":286,"adjusted_eth":37.0876},{"eth":42,"date":"2025-06-24","block":22777284,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":99,"adjusted_eth":32.3134},{"eth":46.3,"date":"2025-07-13","block":22909250,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":66,"adjusted_eth":32.5331},{"eth":45,"date":"2025-09-01","block":23266172,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":2,"adjusted_eth":30.39},{"eth":34,"date":"2026-02-05","block":24393120,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":668,"adjusted_eth":34.5572},{"eth":31.1,"date":"2026-04-01","block":24787068,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":78,"adjusted_eth":33.4559},{"eth":31.1,"date":"2026-04-01","block":24788133,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":77,"adjusted_eth":33.4559},{"eth":34.5,"date":"2026-05-14","block":25095888,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":301,"adjusted_eth":35.0666}],"comparables":[{"eth":44,"date":"2025-01-21","punk":8050,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.5684,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":40,"date":"2026-10-29","punk":4202,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.9259,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":53,"date":"2026-10-20","punk":1424,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":51.5085,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.99,"date":"2026-09-29","punk":7559,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.2883,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":192,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.4737,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":4755,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9431,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.98,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":5133,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.8425,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.5,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":5559,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8998,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.1171,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Normal Beard","sales_12m":39},{"attribute":"Headband","sales_12m":48},{"attribute":"Nerd Glasses","sales_12m":64}],"summary":["Estimate 36.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.7 to 40.5 ETH, 2σ range 29.4 to 45.1 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 12:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Earring -2%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1812","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}