{"punk":1817,"name":"CryptoPunk #1817","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1817","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1817.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Purple Lipstick","Earring","Crazy Hair"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":37.8761,"usd":86116,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.6949,"high_eth":42.5761,"low_usd":76610,"high_usd":96802},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.9753,"high_eth":47.8592,"low_usd":68153,"high_usd":108814},"sigma_log":0.117,"multiple_of_floor":1.2463,"n1_eth":30.7154,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":37.3776,"usd":84983,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.2514,"high_eth":42.0157,"low_usd":75601,"high_usd":95528},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.5808,"high_eth":47.2293,"low_usd":67256,"high_usd":107382},"sigma_log":0.117,"multiple_of_floor":1.2463,"n1_eth":30.3111,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":45,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":45,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":23.3,"beta":0.2096,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":14.9}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":66.6,"date":"2021-08-01","block":12941456,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":61,"adjusted_eth":60.9873},{"eth":72,"date":"2022-01-22","block":14056519,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":275,"adjusted_eth":31.9893},{"eth":77.5,"date":"2022-03-18","block":14412710,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":41,"adjusted_eth":31.8867},{"eth":40,"date":"2025-01-18","block":21651299,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":326,"adjusted_eth":32.204},{"eth":34,"date":"2025-02-08","block":21799961,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":291,"adjusted_eth":29.1415},{"eth":39,"date":"2025-03-13","block":22040855,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":86,"adjusted_eth":30.4665},{"eth":44.99,"date":"2025-03-31","block":22167747,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":32,"adjusted_eth":31.68}],"comparables":[{"eth":48.5186,"date":"2025-09-14","punk":6821,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0821,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":40.99,"date":"2025-03-27","punk":6718,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.9313,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":39.39,"date":"2025-03-24","punk":6718,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.2609,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":88,"date":"2026-10-22","punk":4405,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":84.3979,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":1452,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8721,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35.6,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":8674,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.9215,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.485,"date":"2026-08-24","punk":6570,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.8806,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.48,"date":"2026-06-25","punk":8999,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0281,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.2096,"type_multiple":{"sales":442,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0107,"median_multiple":1.0107},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Purple Lipstick","sales_12m":67},{"attribute":"Earring","sales_12m":306},{"attribute":"Crazy Hair","sales_12m":59}],"summary":["Estimate 37.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 33.7 to 42.6 ETH, 2σ range 30.0 to 47.9 ETH, confidence High, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +23%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1817","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}