{"punk":1831,"name":"CryptoPunk #1831","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1831","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1831.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Big Beard","Bandana","Medical Mask","Horned Rim Glasses"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":35.9907,"usd":87208,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.4531,"high_eth":39.9139,"low_usd":78637,"high_usd":96715},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.2633,"high_eth":44.2647,"low_usd":70907,"high_usd":107257},"sigma_log":0.1035,"multiple_of_floor":1.1843,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":35.9907,"usd":87208,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.4531,"high_eth":39.9139,"low_usd":78637,"high_usd":96715},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.2633,"high_eth":44.2647,"low_usd":70907,"high_usd":107257},"sigma_log":0.1035,"multiple_of_floor":1.1843,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":46,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":46,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":125,"ask_usd":279472,"z":12.03,"z_text":"12.0σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2026-07-03T14:35:59.000Z","days_listed":125},"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0357,"term":"attr:Bandana","label":"Bandana","sales_12m":63,"weighted_sales":14.1}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":36,"date":"2021-03-09","block":12003188,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":67,"adjusted_eth":66.3055},{"eth":85,"date":"2021-04-13","block":12231209,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":152,"adjusted_eth":127.563},{"eth":150,"date":"2025-05-30","block":22595521,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"twin-of-nominal-24h","log_index":286,"adjusted_eth":99.6393},{"eth":0,"date":"2025-05-30","block":22597009,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":261,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":45,"date":"2025-07-04","block":22846009,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":1003,"adjusted_eth":35.0744},{"eth":60,"date":"2026-01-08","block":24192358,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":99,"adjusted_eth":62.8976}],"comparables":[{"eth":60,"date":"2024-12-10","punk":9019,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":46.7778,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":45,"date":"2026-03-09","punk":9447,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":45.9063,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40,"date":"2026-01-08","punk":6056,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.9317,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.99,"date":"2026-01-03","punk":8086,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1971,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2025-11-04","punk":8086,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5725,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":51.2,"date":"2025-08-26","punk":8335,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.1975,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":51,"date":"2025-04-22","punk":3302,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.2488,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":62.5,"date":"2025-04-13","punk":7163,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":44.7017,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.1055,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Big Beard","sales_12m":7},{"attribute":"Medical Mask","sales_12m":12},{"attribute":"Horned Rim Glasses","sales_12m":50}],"summary":["Estimate 36.0 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.5 to 39.9 ETH, 2σ range 29.3 to 44.3 ETH, confidence Low, as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 12:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Bandana -4%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1831","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}