{"punk":1839,"name":"CryptoPunk #1839","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1839","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1839.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Smile","Mustache","Earring","Knitted Cap","Cigarette","Nerd Glasses"],"attribute_count":6,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":38.717,"usd":93814,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":34.1316,"high_eth":43.9186,"low_usd":82704,"high_usd":106418},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.0892,"high_eth":49.8189,"low_usd":72909,"high_usd":120715},"sigma_log":0.1261,"multiple_of_floor":1.274,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":38.717,"usd":93814,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":34.1316,"high_eth":43.9186,"low_usd":82704,"high_usd":106418},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.0892,"high_eth":49.8189,"low_usd":72909,"high_usd":120715},"sigma_log":0.1261,"multiple_of_floor":1.274,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","block":26355395,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":30,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","block":26355395,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":30,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":745,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":17,"beta":0.1572,"term":"attr:Smile","label":"Smile","sales_12m":21,"weighted_sales":7},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":65,"date":"2021-02-28","block":11944710,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":77,"adjusted_eth":89.9522},{"eth":360,"date":"2021-03-12","block":12020612,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":174,"adjusted_eth":497.7434},{"eth":180,"date":"2023-04-14","block":17042776,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":70,"adjusted_eth":98.5622},{"eth":161.5,"date":"2026-09-04","block":25904724,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":241,"adjusted_eth":159.6612}],"comparables":[{"eth":38.99,"date":"2026-06-16","punk":8918,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.2357,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":40,"date":"2026-02-06","punk":5655,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":40.71,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":31.1,"date":"2026-01-03","punk":7917,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.4677,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":37.5,"date":"2025-11-23","punk":5418,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.1273,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":54.9,"date":"2025-08-09","punk":5418,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3513,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":75,"date":"2025-07-30","punk":5233,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":42.3338,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":53.2,"date":"2025-07-29","punk":5418,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5162,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":51.7,"date":"2025-07-28","punk":5418,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.1064,"shared_attributes":3}],"premium_log":0.1785,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Mustache","sales_12m":51},{"attribute":"Knitted Cap","sales_12m":49},{"attribute":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110},{"attribute":"Nerd Glasses","sales_12m":64}],"summary":["Estimate 38.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 34.1 to 43.9 ETH, 2σ range 30.1 to 49.8 ETH, confidence Low, as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 11:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Smile +17%, Earring -2%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1839","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}