{"punk":1858,"name":"CryptoPunk #1858","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1858","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1858.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Stringy Hair","Big Shades"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-06","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-06 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-07T00:20:34.586Z","fingerprint_sha256":"76e58439a099cc8cd66c5865a3915bee905a819a57c55e8ad375b9f5abdc46a1"},"estimate":{"eth":33.3642,"usd":74595,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.7565,"high_eth":36.1929,"low_usd":68765,"high_usd":80919},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.3527,"high_eth":39.2614,"low_usd":63390,"high_usd":87780},"sigma_log":0.0814,"multiple_of_floor":1.0979,"n1_eth":32.3833,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-07T11:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":33.3642,"usd":74595,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.7565,"high_eth":36.1929,"low_usd":68765,"high_usd":80919},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.3527,"high_eth":39.2614,"low_usd":63390,"high_usd":87780},"sigma_log":0.0814,"multiple_of_floor":1.0979,"n1_eth":32.3833,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"76e58439a099cc8cd66c5865a3915bee905a819a57c55e8ad375b9f5abdc46a1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-07T11:04:35.000Z","block":26362557,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":11,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2235.7745744284666,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-07","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-07T11:04:35.000Z","block":26362557,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":11,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-07","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.044,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.7,"beta":0.1192,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66},{"pct":-3.4,"beta":-0.035,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":100.8},{"pct":-9.4,"beta":-0.0984,"term":"attr:Stringy Hair","label":"Stringy Hair","sales_12m":96,"weighted_sales":25}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[],"comparables":[{"eth":45.25,"date":"2025-09-03","punk":6920,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":28.6549,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":45,"date":"2025-08-29","punk":6920,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3277,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":47.99,"date":"2025-03-31","punk":5500,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.2432,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":43,"date":"2025-01-27","punk":5500,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.9582,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":37.24,"date":"2025-01-18","punk":8372,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3818,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42,"date":"2024-12-16","punk":6920,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.1587,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.99,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":9585,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9696,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":43.5,"date":"2026-10-16","punk":6687,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":42.644,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.0298,"type_multiple":{"sales":773,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0656,"median_multiple":1.0656},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Big Shades","sales_12m":81}],"summary":["Estimate 33.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 30.8 to 36.2 ETH, 2σ range 28.4 to 39.3 ETH, confidence High, as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-06).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 11:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-06.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (773 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -3%, Stringy Hair -9%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1858","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}