{"punk":1864,"name":"CryptoPunk #1864","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1864","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1864.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Mole","Clown Hair Green","Clown Eyes Blue"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":32.0752,"usd":77721,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.6048,"high_eth":34.7517,"low_usd":71735,"high_usd":84206},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.3247,"high_eth":37.6515,"low_usd":66210,"high_usd":91233},"sigma_log":0.0801,"multiple_of_floor":1.0555,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T02:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":32.0752,"usd":77721,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.6048,"high_eth":34.7517,"low_usd":71735,"high_usd":84206},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.3247,"high_eth":37.6515,"low_usd":66210,"high_usd":91233},"sigma_log":0.0801,"multiple_of_floor":1.0555,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T02:04:23.000Z","block":26352699,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":60,"stale":false,"label":"as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T02:04:23.000Z","block":26352699,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":60,"stale":false,"label":"as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-6.7,"beta":-0.0698,"term":"attr:Mole","label":"Mole","sales_12m":89,"weighted_sales":22.5},{"pct":-7.8,"beta":-0.081,"term":"attr:Clown Eyes Blue","label":"Clown Eyes Blue","sales_12m":65,"weighted_sales":6.3}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.4,"date":"2017-07-10","block":4003070,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":39,"adjusted_eth":37.4031},{"eth":0.65,"date":"2019-03-14","block":7367285,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":75,"adjusted_eth":66.0652},{"eth":123.321,"date":"2021-08-28","block":13113195,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":105,"adjusted_eth":27.2172},{"eth":147.14,"date":"2021-08-28","block":13114869,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":202,"adjusted_eth":32.4741},{"eth":70,"date":"2021-11-10","block":13586520,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":3,"adjusted_eth":25.6301},{"eth":85,"date":"2021-11-10","block":13589561,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":583,"adjusted_eth":31.1223},{"eth":68.5,"date":"2022-03-18","block":14410518,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":37,"adjusted_eth":28.5597},{"eth":75.95,"date":"2022-03-18","block":14412268,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":34,"adjusted_eth":31.6658}],"comparables":[{"eth":54.18,"date":"2025-08-09","punk":1026,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9533,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.97,"date":"2024-11-14","punk":1026,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3716,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.9,"date":"2024-11-13","punk":1026,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.5513,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.62,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":3425,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.6018,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33.01,"date":"2026-10-09","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.8569,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.67,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3878,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":34.49,"date":"2026-10-06","punk":926,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.8587,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.849,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":926,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.6314,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.0097,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Clown Hair Green","sales_12m":15}],"summary":["Estimate 32.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.6 to 34.8 ETH, 2σ range 27.3 to 37.7 ETH, confidence Low, as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 02:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Mole -7%, Clown Eyes Blue -8%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1864","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}