{"punk":1884,"name":"CryptoPunk #1884","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1884","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1884.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Silver Chain","Chinstrap","Peak Spike"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":36.2134,"usd":87748,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.8472,"high_eth":39.9247,"low_usd":79591,"high_usd":96741},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.7938,"high_eth":44.0163,"low_usd":72193,"high_usd":106655},"sigma_log":0.0976,"multiple_of_floor":1.1916,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":36.2134,"usd":87748,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.8472,"high_eth":39.9247,"low_usd":79591,"high_usd":96741},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.7938,"high_eth":44.0163,"low_usd":72193,"high_usd":106655},"sigma_log":0.0976,"multiple_of_floor":1.1916,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":33,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":33,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":745,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":139,"ask_usd":310773,"z":13.78,"z_text":"13.8σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2022-09-17T10:25:11.000Z","days_listed":1511},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":19.8,"beta":0.1805,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":25.7},{"pct":-5.3,"beta":-0.054,"term":"attr:Chinstrap","label":"Chinstrap","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":19.3},{"pct":-5.8,"beta":-0.0603,"term":"attr:Peak Spike","label":"Peak Spike","sales_12m":41,"weighted_sales":14.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":37,"date":"2021-03-03","block":11962175,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":151,"adjusted_eth":51.1337},{"eth":30,"date":"2021-07-31","block":12930074,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":120,"adjusted_eth":30.4001},{"eth":31.98,"date":"2021-07-31","block":12936080,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":143,"adjusted_eth":32.4065},{"eth":38,"date":"2021-08-01","block":12937475,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":52,"adjusted_eth":35.2617},{"eth":125,"date":"2021-10-01","block":13331894,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":160,"adjusted_eth":30.512},{"eth":134.99,"date":"2021-10-01","block":13333326,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":120,"adjusted_eth":32.9506}],"comparables":[{"eth":36.435,"date":"2026-07-16","punk":5511,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":34.1431,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.29,"date":"2026-01-29","punk":8626,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":32.4124,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48.95,"date":"2025-10-07","punk":9625,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.7226,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":49,"date":"2025-10-06","punk":9625,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5772,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":49.9,"date":"2025-09-18","punk":9625,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3967,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":2303,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.9783,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-10-29","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4444,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.5,"date":"2026-10-25","punk":9404,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.2116,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.1117,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Silver Chain","sales_12m":20}],"summary":["Estimate 36.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.8 to 39.9 ETH, 2σ range 29.8 to 44.0 ETH, confidence Low, as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 10:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +20%, Chinstrap -5%, Peak Spike -6%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1884","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}