{"punk":1930,"name":"CryptoPunk #1930","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1930","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1930.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Crazy Hair","Clown Eyes Blue"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":30.6779,"usd":74335,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.1235,"high_eth":32.3154,"low_usd":70569,"high_usd":78303},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.6477,"high_eth":34.0403,"low_usd":66993,"high_usd":82482},"sigma_log":0.052,"multiple_of_floor":1.0095,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.6779,"usd":74335,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.1235,"high_eth":32.3154,"low_usd":70569,"high_usd":78303},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.6477,"high_eth":34.0403,"low_usd":66993,"high_usd":82482},"sigma_log":0.052,"multiple_of_floor":1.0095,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":29,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":29,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":405,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":64.99,"date":"2023-03-10","block":16799182,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":116,"adjusted_eth":30.158},{"eth":34.8,"date":"2024-11-15","block":21190843,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":838,"adjusted_eth":27.8382},{"eth":45,"date":"2024-12-01","block":21309620,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":313,"adjusted_eth":31.8109},{"eth":49,"date":"2025-07-22","block":22977782,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":1044,"adjusted_eth":31.3497},{"eth":30,"date":"2025-11-24","block":23868140,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":115,"adjusted_eth":29.4382},{"eth":32,"date":"2026-07-04","block":25460820,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":336,"adjusted_eth":29.9778},{"eth":30.5,"date":"2026-08-19","block":25790467,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":95,"adjusted_eth":28.7856},{"eth":29.65,"date":"2026-09-21","block":26028235,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":270,"adjusted_eth":29.0666},{"eth":29.86,"date":"2026-10-15","block":26196102,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":903,"adjusted_eth":29.2819},{"eth":29.6,"date":"2026-10-15","block":26197338,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":2495,"adjusted_eth":29.0269},{"eth":0,"date":"2026-10-19","block":26229957,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":765,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":29.9825,"date":"2026-10-19","block":26229957,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"twin-of-nominal-24h","log_index":769,"adjusted_eth":29.7281},{"eth":32.9807,"date":"2026-10-31","block":26312958,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":240,"adjusted_eth":32.959}],"comparables":[{"eth":31.5,"date":"2026-05-16","punk":2461,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.1585,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.8,"date":"2026-01-12","punk":7841,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.1186,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-10-27","punk":5084,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8983,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.27,"date":"2026-10-24","punk":4140,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9542,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":28.73,"date":"2026-10-19","punk":5084,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.4863,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.5,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":1859,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.158,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.201,"date":"2026-10-07","punk":4140,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7534,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":40,"date":"2026-10-06","punk":9670,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.9483,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Crazy Hair","sales_12m":59},{"attribute":"Clown Eyes Blue","sales_12m":65}],"summary":["Estimate 30.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.1 to 32.3 ETH, 2σ range 27.6 to 34.0 ETH, confidence High, as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 10:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","No attribute of this punk has a clear premium in recent sales, so the estimate is the type multiple.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[{"sale_day":"2026-10-31","estimate_date":"2026-10-30","price_eth":32.9807,"est_eth":27.9569,"low1":26.4929,"high1":29.5019,"low2":25.1055,"high2":31.1322,"z":3.07,"confidence":"High","source":"native-buy","prospective":true,"model_version":"est-v2-202610","z_text":"3.1σ above the estimate"}],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1930","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}