{"punk":2015,"name":"CryptoPunk #2015","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/2015","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/2015.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Earring","Pink With Hat","Nerd Glasses"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":41.2981,"usd":93896,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":35.3013,"high_eth":48.3134,"low_usd":80262,"high_usd":109847},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.1754,"high_eth":56.5204,"low_usd":68608,"high_usd":128506},"sigma_log":0.1569,"multiple_of_floor":1.3589,"n1_eth":30.7154,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":40.7545,"usd":92661,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":34.8367,"high_eth":47.6775,"low_usd":79206,"high_usd":108401},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.7782,"high_eth":55.7765,"low_usd":67705,"high_usd":126815},"sigma_log":0.1569,"multiple_of_floor":1.3589,"n1_eth":30.3111,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":44,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":44,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4,"beta":0.0392,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":42.5},{"pct":29.3,"beta":0.2568,"term":"attr:Pink With Hat","label":"Pink With Hat","sales_12m":10,"weighted_sales":3}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":41,"date":"2021-02-19","block":11884431,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":45,"adjusted_eth":97.2008},{"eth":42,"date":"2021-04-08","block":12201297,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":37,"adjusted_eth":63.9705},{"eth":45,"date":"2021-04-10","block":12213986,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":37,"adjusted_eth":68.5399},{"eth":98,"date":"2021-08-18","block":13051800,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":85,"adjusted_eth":66.7959},{"eth":30,"date":"2024-08-18","block":20558831,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":21,"adjusted_eth":39.3742}],"comparables":[{"eth":50,"date":"2026-06-27","punk":7090,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":46.1385,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.99,"date":"2026-04-04","punk":4214,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.2758,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.98,"date":"2026-04-04","punk":7663,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.2651,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36.5,"date":"2026-01-23","punk":6667,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":40.1701,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":25.65,"date":"2026-01-16","punk":6667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":26.6728,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.42,"date":"2025-12-29","punk":7999,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":30.6609,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":37,"date":"2025-11-05","punk":2190,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":30.4092,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":49.7,"date":"2025-10-06","punk":7663,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.6058,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.2961,"type_multiple":{"sales":442,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0107,"median_multiple":1.0107},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Earring","sales_12m":306},{"attribute":"Nerd Glasses","sales_12m":64}],"summary":["Estimate 41.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 35.3 to 48.3 ETH, 2σ range 30.2 to 56.5 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +4%, Pink With Hat +29%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/2015","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}