{"punk":2109,"name":"CryptoPunk #2109","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/2109","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/2109.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Chinstrap","Earring","Stringy Hair","Eye Patch"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":31.9813,"usd":77493,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.2515,"high_eth":34.9659,"low_usd":70879,"high_usd":84725},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.7546,"high_eth":38.2291,"low_usd":64829,"high_usd":92632},"sigma_log":0.0892,"multiple_of_floor":1.0524,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":31.9813,"usd":77493,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.2515,"high_eth":34.9659,"low_usd":70879,"high_usd":84725},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.7546,"high_eth":38.2291,"low_usd":64829,"high_usd":92632},"sigma_log":0.0892,"multiple_of_floor":1.0524,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","block":26353297,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","block":26353297,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-5.3,"beta":-0.054,"term":"attr:Chinstrap","label":"Chinstrap","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":19.3},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.6},{"pct":-9.4,"beta":-0.0983,"term":"attr:Stringy Hair","label":"Stringy Hair","sales_12m":96,"weighted_sales":25.2}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.165,"date":"2017-12-13","block":4728098,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":30,"adjusted_eth":45.585},{"eth":60,"date":"2022-04-22","block":14636643,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":95,"adjusted_eth":30.9051},{"eth":64.95,"date":"2022-04-30","block":14686944,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":68,"adjusted_eth":32.3844}],"comparables":[{"eth":30.99,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":9585,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9696,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":31.745,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":2505,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1203,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":38,"date":"2026-08-23","punk":1717,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.1107,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":32.25,"date":"2026-08-20","punk":2505,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.24,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":41,"date":"2025-07-09","punk":6193,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.6735,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":43.98,"date":"2025-04-27","punk":4875,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0349,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":41,"date":"2025-03-27","punk":6193,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3243,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":37.99,"date":"2025-03-10","punk":6193,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3941,"shared_attributes":3}],"premium_log":-0.0126,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Eye Patch","sales_12m":74}],"summary":["Estimate 32.0 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.3 to 35.0 ETH, 2σ range 26.8 to 38.2 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 04:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Chinstrap -5%, Earring -2%, Stringy Hair -9%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/2109","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}