{"punk":2126,"name":"CryptoPunk #2126","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/2126","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/2126.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Frown","Frumpy Hair","Clown Eyes Green"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":32.7109,"usd":79261,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.1913,"high_eth":35.4408,"low_usd":73156,"high_usd":85876},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.8658,"high_eth":38.3986,"low_usd":67521,"high_usd":93043},"sigma_log":0.0802,"multiple_of_floor":1.0764,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":32.7109,"usd":79261,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.1913,"high_eth":35.4408,"low_usd":73156,"high_usd":85876},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.8658,"high_eth":38.3986,"low_usd":67521,"high_usd":93043},"sigma_log":0.0802,"multiple_of_floor":1.0764,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","block":26353297,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","block":26353297,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.076,"term":"attr:Frumpy Hair","label":"Frumpy Hair","sales_12m":59,"weighted_sales":19.8},{"pct":-7.5,"beta":-0.0779,"term":"attr:Clown Eyes Green","label":"Clown Eyes Green","sales_12m":61,"weighted_sales":8.7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":15,"date":"2021-02-20","block":11894888,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":10,"adjusted_eth":33.6669},{"eth":20.5,"date":"2021-02-26","block":11930305,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":194,"adjusted_eth":29.6664},{"eth":23.88,"date":"2021-05-03","block":12362251,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":100,"adjusted_eth":35.5393},{"eth":17.5,"date":"2021-05-12","block":12416600,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":114,"adjusted_eth":38.0691},{"eth":81,"date":"2021-11-23","block":13669041,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":137,"adjusted_eth":29.1312},{"eth":83.99,"date":"2021-12-01","block":13720826,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":109,"adjusted_eth":32.33},{"eth":63,"date":"2022-09-27","block":15622632,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":26,"adjusted_eth":29.0571},{"eth":71.99,"date":"2022-10-17","block":15768975,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":347,"adjusted_eth":32.8594},{"eth":67.95,"date":"2022-12-31","block":16303350,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":129,"adjusted_eth":31.5412}],"comparables":[{"eth":29,"date":"2026-10-20","punk":7711,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":28.1839,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.4,"date":"2026-10-15","punk":5098,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8114,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.31,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":5098,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0538,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.25,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":5098,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1584,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.42,"date":"2026-08-21","punk":5098,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3619,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.69,"date":"2025-11-05","punk":5935,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":27.2252,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48.0676,"date":"2025-10-09","punk":7771,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.1501,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":49.8227,"date":"2025-10-06","punk":7771,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0906,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.01,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Frown","sales_12m":40}],"summary":["Estimate 32.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 30.2 to 35.4 ETH, 2σ range 27.9 to 38.4 ETH, confidence High, as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 04:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Frumpy Hair -7%, Clown Eyes Green -8%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/2126","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}