{"punk":215,"name":"CryptoPunk #215","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/215","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/215.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Mohawk"],"attribute_count":1,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":31.5687,"usd":71775,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":25.6032,"high_eth":38.9242,"low_usd":58212,"high_usd":88499},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":20.765,"high_eth":47.9935,"low_usd":47212,"high_usd":109119},"sigma_log":0.2094,"multiple_of_floor":1.0388,"n1_eth":30.7154,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Female 0-1","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":31.1532,"usd":70831,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":25.2662,"high_eth":38.4119,"low_usd":57446,"high_usd":87334},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":20.4917,"high_eth":47.3618,"low_usd":46590,"high_usd":107683},"sigma_log":0.2094,"multiple_of_floor":1.0388,"n1_eth":30.3111,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Female 0-1","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 0-1","terms":[{"pct":2.8,"beta":0.0274,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":53.2}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 0-1","seen":{"n":18,"cover1":0.778,"cover2":1,"bias_pct":13.4,"within10":0.222,"within25":0.778,"MdALE_pct":19.5},"thin":true,"sigma":0.209,"selection":{"n":28,"cover1":0.821,"cover2":0.964,"bias_pct":2.3,"within10":0.607,"within25":0.857,"MdALE_pct":9}},"own_sales":[],"comparables":[{"eth":28.994,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":3364,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5163,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":28.46,"date":"2026-10-28","punk":3364,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.5514,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.47,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":9228,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.6405,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":41,"date":"2026-06-13","punk":7076,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.6021,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":40,"date":"2026-06-13","punk":1475,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.685,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30.83,"date":"2026-06-05","punk":3042,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.8935,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30.99,"date":"2026-05-16","punk":3241,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.3088,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.6,"date":"2026-05-11","punk":3241,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8991,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.0274,"type_multiple":{"sales":442,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0107,"median_multiple":1.0107},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Mohawk","sales_12m":75}],"summary":["Estimate 31.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 25.6 to 38.9 ETH, 2σ range 20.8 to 48.0 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +3%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 0-1 sales landed within ±9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±19.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/215","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}