{"punk":2196,"name":"CryptoPunk #2196","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/2196","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/2196.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Hot Lipstick","Choker","Mohawk Thin"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":37.6041,"usd":85498,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.5607,"high_eth":42.1345,"low_usd":76305,"high_usd":95798},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.9521,"high_eth":47.2107,"low_usd":68100,"high_usd":107340},"sigma_log":0.1138,"multiple_of_floor":1.2374,"n1_eth":30.7154,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":37.1091,"usd":84372,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.119,"high_eth":41.5799,"low_usd":75300,"high_usd":94537},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.5579,"high_eth":46.5893,"low_usd":67204,"high_usd":105927},"sigma_log":0.1138,"multiple_of_floor":1.2374,"n1_eth":30.3111,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":45,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":45,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":{"ask_eth":125,"ask_usd":278789,"z":10.56,"z_text":"10.6σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2023-02-06T14:06:35.000Z","days_listed":1368},"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4,"beta":0.0392,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":42.5},{"pct":17.7,"beta":0.1631,"term":"attr:Choker","label":"Choker","sales_12m":2,"weighted_sales":0.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":55,"date":"2021-03-13","block":12031410,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":173,"adjusted_eth":75.0774},{"eth":120,"date":"2021-08-03","block":12954304,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":35,"adjusted_eth":109.0545}],"comparables":[{"eth":31.98,"date":"2026-07-02","punk":2617,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9994,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.99,"date":"2026-06-27","punk":2617,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5194,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.051,"date":"2026-06-22","punk":2617,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.7387,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.87,"date":"2026-06-05","punk":4105,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.931,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.5,"date":"2026-06-05","punk":9433,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.5842,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.5,"date":"2026-05-23","punk":9433,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.147,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":41.69,"date":"2025-04-21","punk":9383,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7686,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40.2,"date":"2025-04-20","punk":9383,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":28.9182,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.2023,"type_multiple":{"sales":442,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0107,"median_multiple":1.0107},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Hot Lipstick","sales_12m":88},{"attribute":"Mohawk Thin","sales_12m":51}],"summary":["Estimate 37.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 33.6 to 42.1 ETH, 2σ range 30.0 to 47.2 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +4%, Choker +18%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/2196","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}