{"punk":2209,"name":"CryptoPunk #2209","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/2209","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/2209.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Mole","Shadow Beard","Earring","Mohawk Dark","Clown Eyes Green"],"attribute_count":5,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":29.6734,"usd":71901,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.8719,"high_eth":32.7669,"low_usd":65113,"high_usd":79397},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.3349,"high_eth":36.183,"low_usd":58965,"high_usd":87674},"sigma_log":0.0992,"multiple_of_floor":0.9764,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":29.6734,"usd":71901,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.8719,"high_eth":32.7669,"low_usd":65113,"high_usd":79397},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.3349,"high_eth":36.183,"low_usd":58965,"high_usd":87674},"sigma_log":0.0992,"multiple_of_floor":0.9764,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","block":26353598,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":38,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","block":26353598,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":38,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-6.7,"beta":-0.0698,"term":"attr:Mole","label":"Mole","sales_12m":89,"weighted_sales":22.5},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.6},{"pct":-7.6,"beta":-0.0795,"term":"attr:Mohawk Dark","label":"Mohawk Dark","sales_12m":53,"weighted_sales":13.5},{"pct":-7.5,"beta":-0.0779,"term":"attr:Clown Eyes Green","label":"Clown Eyes Green","sales_12m":61,"weighted_sales":8.7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.9,"date":"2020-03-14","block":9670272,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":64,"adjusted_eth":45.585},{"eth":1.2,"date":"2020-05-12","block":10052399,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":142,"adjusted_eth":66.3055},{"eth":15,"date":"2020-12-23","block":11507218,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":125,"adjusted_eth":113.9625},{"eth":65,"date":"2021-07-29","block":12923172,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":62,"adjusted_eth":86.8668},{"eth":173,"date":"2021-08-28","block":13114214,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":88,"adjusted_eth":38.1815}],"comparables":[{"eth":250,"date":"2025-07-25","punk":4668,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":146.1339,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":45.45,"date":"2025-04-05","punk":791,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":32.4307,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":40,"date":"2024-11-28","punk":791,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4814,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":27.62,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":3425,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.6018,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-10-11","punk":3739,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3298,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.311,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":9787,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0481,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35.75,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":2128,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.9542,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":37,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":5942,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.0715,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0875,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Shadow Beard","sales_12m":55}],"summary":["Estimate 29.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 26.9 to 32.8 ETH, 2σ range 24.3 to 36.2 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 05:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Mole -7%, Earring -2%, Mohawk Dark -8%, Clown Eyes Green -8%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/2209","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}