{"punk":2238,"name":"CryptoPunk #2238","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/2238","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/2238.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Goat","Mohawk"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":31.5229,"usd":76383,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.0664,"high_eth":34.1871,"low_usd":70430,"high_usd":82838},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.8013,"high_eth":37.0764,"low_usd":64942,"high_usd":89839},"sigma_log":0.0811,"multiple_of_floor":1.0373,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":31.5229,"usd":76383,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.0664,"high_eth":34.1871,"low_usd":70430,"high_usd":82838},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.8013,"high_eth":37.0764,"low_usd":64942,"high_usd":89839},"sigma_log":0.0811,"multiple_of_floor":1.0373,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":44,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":44,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0762,"term":"attr:Goat","label":"Goat","sales_12m":37,"weighted_sales":16.7},{"pct":-7.6,"beta":-0.0788,"term":"attr:Mohawk","label":"Mohawk","sales_12m":73,"weighted_sales":15.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.445,"date":"2019-05-06","block":7704753,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":78,"adjusted_eth":30.7353},{"eth":10.88,"date":"2021-02-17","block":11874985,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":126,"adjusted_eth":25.6711},{"eth":12,"date":"2021-02-18","block":11878949,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":182,"adjusted_eth":26.9534},{"eth":12.8,"date":"2021-02-18","block":11879401,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":41,"adjusted_eth":28.7503},{"eth":13.4,"date":"2021-02-20","block":11896837,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":213,"adjusted_eth":30.0758},{"eth":19.75,"date":"2021-05-07","block":12388881,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":15,"adjusted_eth":30.39},{"eth":13,"date":"2021-05-18","block":12456947,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":35,"adjusted_eth":27.8218},{"eth":14.99,"date":"2021-05-19","block":12463979,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":66,"adjusted_eth":32.539},{"eth":52,"date":"2021-08-07","block":12977154,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":102,"adjusted_eth":30.4838},{"eth":72,"date":"2021-08-23","block":13081958,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":87,"adjusted_eth":32.3298}],"comparables":[{"eth":37.5,"date":"2026-07-12","punk":8340,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.1302,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":26.1,"date":"2025-12-22","punk":239,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3988,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":41.9,"date":"2025-07-16","punk":6395,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.654,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":37.99,"date":"2025-06-22","punk":6395,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.8773,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48.8,"date":"2025-06-16","punk":9735,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":35.3187,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":44.9,"date":"2025-06-09","punk":6395,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0116,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":44,"date":"2025-06-07","punk":6395,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7213,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48.6,"date":"2025-04-06","punk":9735,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.6784,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.027,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 31.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.1 to 34.2 ETH, 2σ range 26.8 to 37.1 ETH, confidence High, as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 07:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Goat -7%, Mohawk -8%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/2238","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}