{"punk":2303,"name":"CryptoPunk #2303","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/2303","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/2303.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Chinstrap","Fedora","Small Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":35.3376,"usd":85626,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.2603,"high_eth":38.7086,"low_usd":78169,"high_usd":93794},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.4509,"high_eth":42.4011,"low_usd":71362,"high_usd":102741},"sigma_log":0.0911,"multiple_of_floor":1.1628,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":35.3376,"usd":85626,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.2603,"high_eth":38.7086,"low_usd":78169,"high_usd":93794},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.4509,"high_eth":42.4011,"low_usd":71362,"high_usd":102741},"sigma_log":0.0911,"multiple_of_floor":1.1628,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","block":26355395,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":29,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","block":26355395,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":29,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":745,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-5.3,"beta":-0.054,"term":"attr:Chinstrap","label":"Chinstrap","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":19.3}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":1,"date":"2020-05-21","block":10110785,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":101,"adjusted_eth":37.9875},{"eth":1.45,"date":"2020-05-25","block":10137903,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":83,"adjusted_eth":39.3442},{"eth":1.29,"date":"2020-06-02","block":10186924,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":74,"adjusted_eth":31.3625},{"eth":1.19,"date":"2020-07-09","block":10424989,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":64,"adjusted_eth":40.6338},{"eth":1.4,"date":"2020-09-11","block":10840927,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":22,"adjusted_eth":30.8304},{"eth":98,"date":"2021-08-24","block":13090483,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":24,"adjusted_eth":39.4466},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-06-11","block":25295442,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":235,"adjusted_eth":30.6688},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-11-02","block":26326597,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":159,"adjusted_eth":32.9783}],"comparables":[{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-05-06","punk":5495,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.862,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38,"date":"2026-04-04","punk":4794,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.2583,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.015,"date":"2025-12-08","punk":5269,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2945,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":52.5,"date":"2025-07-28","punk":2404,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5568,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":46.69,"date":"2025-07-17","punk":4794,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.7996,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":46,"date":"2025-06-26","punk":8215,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.8446,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":51.5,"date":"2025-04-22","punk":5495,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.5944,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42.5,"date":"2025-02-14","punk":450,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.3926,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0872,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Fedora","sales_12m":18},{"attribute":"Small Shades","sales_12m":44}],"summary":["Estimate 35.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.3 to 38.7 ETH, 2σ range 29.5 to 42.4 ETH, confidence Low, as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 11:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Chinstrap -5%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[{"sale_day":"2026-11-02","estimate_date":"2026-11-01","price_eth":33,"est_eth":35.8105,"low1":32.5871,"high1":39.3528,"low2":29.6539,"high2":43.2454,"z":-0.87,"confidence":"Low","source":"native-buy","prospective":true,"model_version":"est-v2-202610","z_text":"0.9σ below the estimate"}],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/2303","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}