{"punk":2309,"name":"CryptoPunk #2309","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/2309","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/2309.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Front Beard","Earring","Frumpy Hair"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":31.2852,"usd":75807,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.8266,"high_eth":33.9536,"low_usd":69849,"high_usd":82272},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.5612,"high_eth":36.8495,"low_usd":64360,"high_usd":89289},"sigma_log":0.0818,"multiple_of_floor":1.0295,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":31.2852,"usd":75807,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.8266,"high_eth":33.9536,"low_usd":69849,"high_usd":82272},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.5612,"high_eth":36.8495,"low_usd":64360,"high_usd":89289},"sigma_log":0.0818,"multiple_of_floor":1.0295,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":56,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":56,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0757,"term":"attr:Front Beard","label":"Front Beard","sales_12m":38,"weighted_sales":11.3},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.6},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.076,"term":"attr:Frumpy Hair","label":"Frumpy Hair","sales_12m":59,"weighted_sales":19.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":1.3,"date":"2020-05-27","block":10146945,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":152,"adjusted_eth":28.6283},{"eth":1.95,"date":"2020-09-20","block":10895866,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":52,"adjusted_eth":27.563},{"eth":0,"date":"2020-10-04","block":10986164,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":111,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-08-18","block":15367293,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":122,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-08-26","block":15412705,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":113,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2023-02-15","block":16634947,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":48,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":50.75,"date":"2023-04-26","block":17130423,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":285,"adjusted_eth":29.1273},{"eth":50,"date":"2023-06-14","block":17480627,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":3,"adjusted_eth":29.8234},{"eth":51.95,"date":"2023-06-18","block":17508300,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"twin-of-nominal-24h","log_index":332,"adjusted_eth":30.9622},{"eth":0,"date":"2023-06-18","block":17508413,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":1132,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":59,"date":"2023-12-07","block":18734951,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":184,"adjusted_eth":31.7403},{"eth":28,"date":"2026-01-02","block":24150272,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":734,"adjusted_eth":30.4009}],"comparables":[{"eth":52.1,"date":"2025-09-18","punk":2642,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.7809,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":49.14,"date":"2025-05-15","punk":2642,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0533,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":32,"date":"2026-10-16","punk":8871,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3703,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.99,"date":"2026-09-29","punk":7559,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.2883,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":8871,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.39,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-09-09","punk":7559,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4814,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.49,"date":"2026-08-30","punk":5975,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.7752,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.4,"date":"2026-08-29","punk":3218,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8857,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0346,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 31.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.8 to 34.0 ETH, 2σ range 26.6 to 36.8 ETH, confidence High, as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 06:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Front Beard -7%, Earring -2%, Frumpy Hair -7%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/2309","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}