{"punk":2354,"name":"CryptoPunk #2354","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/2354","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/2354.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Bandana","Clown Eyes Green"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":29.1851,"usd":66356,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.5308,"high_eth":32.1052,"low_usd":60321,"high_usd":72995},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.1177,"high_eth":35.3173,"low_usd":54835,"high_usd":80298},"sigma_log":0.0954,"multiple_of_floor":0.9604,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":28.801,"usd":65483,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.1816,"high_eth":31.6826,"low_usd":59527,"high_usd":72034},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":23.8003,"high_eth":34.8524,"low_usd":54113,"high_usd":79241},"sigma_log":0.0954,"multiple_of_floor":0.9604,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":37,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":37,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":102.4},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0357,"term":"attr:Bandana","label":"Bandana","sales_12m":63,"weighted_sales":14.2},{"pct":-7.5,"beta":-0.0779,"term":"attr:Clown Eyes Green","label":"Clown Eyes Green","sales_12m":61,"weighted_sales":8.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.075,"date":"2017-12-03","block":4668746,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":14,"adjusted_eth":24.9917},{"eth":5.75,"date":"2021-02-03","block":11780333,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":149,"adjusted_eth":31.4103},{"eth":26,"date":"2021-02-23","block":11915398,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":291,"adjusted_eth":33.3222},{"eth":32,"date":"2021-08-04","block":12956022,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":205,"adjusted_eth":27.8249},{"eth":33.2,"date":"2021-08-04","block":12957054,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":194,"adjusted_eth":28.8683},{"eth":64.9,"date":"2021-08-23","block":13081683,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":689,"adjusted_eth":28.7581},{"eth":68,"date":"2021-08-24","block":13084903,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":78,"adjusted_eth":27.0109},{"eth":73.69,"date":"2021-08-24","block":13085353,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":315,"adjusted_eth":29.271},{"eth":51.96,"date":"2021-12-22","block":13852239,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":115,"adjusted_eth":28.9482},{"eth":58.02,"date":"2022-01-08","block":13961447,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":10,"adjusted_eth":27.6413},{"eth":62.97,"date":"2022-01-12","block":13993617,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":80,"adjusted_eth":31.5008},{"eth":65,"date":"2022-03-09","block":14351423,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":32,"adjusted_eth":29.558},{"eth":66.75,"date":"2022-03-13","block":14376265,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":9,"adjusted_eth":28.7248},{"eth":71.5,"date":"2022-03-20","block":14420891,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":84,"adjusted_eth":29.8024}],"comparables":[{"eth":33.99,"date":"2026-06-05","punk":9233,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.855,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.5,"date":"2026-05-16","punk":9233,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.6882,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-10-25","punk":3662,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3157,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.15,"date":"2026-10-25","punk":3662,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.4851,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-10-14","punk":3378,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.629,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":40.5,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":5581,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.7234,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":88.88,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":4746,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":82.1928,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.88,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":9065,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8413,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.1038,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 29.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 26.5 to 32.1 ETH, 2σ range 24.1 to 35.3 ETH, confidence High, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Bandana -4%, Clown Eyes Green -8%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/2354","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}