{"punk":2452,"name":"CryptoPunk #2452","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/2452","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/2452.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Earring","Headband","Medical Mask","Horned Rim Glasses"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":37.2428,"usd":84676,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.2556,"high_eth":41.708,"low_usd":75611,"high_usd":94828},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.6954,"high_eth":46.7085,"low_usd":67516,"high_usd":106198},"sigma_log":0.1132,"multiple_of_floor":1.2255,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":36.7526,"usd":83562,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.8179,"high_eth":41.159,"low_usd":74616,"high_usd":93580},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.3045,"high_eth":46.0937,"low_usd":66628,"high_usd":104800},"sigma_log":0.1132,"multiple_of_floor":1.2255,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":50,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":50,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":67},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":306,"weighted_sales":71.1}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":2,"date":"2020-05-14","block":10065398,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":172,"adjusted_eth":85.6858},{"eth":28.95,"date":"2021-03-05","block":11980205,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":63,"adjusted_eth":48.9133},{"eth":31.5,"date":"2021-03-23","block":12097411,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":318,"adjusted_eth":46.6511},{"eth":70,"date":"2021-08-22","block":13074902,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":94,"adjusted_eth":39.6094},{"eth":130,"date":"2021-09-02","block":13147749,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":81,"adjusted_eth":41.0433},{"eth":73,"date":"2022-02-24","block":14270981,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":17,"adjusted_eth":34.5039},{"eth":49,"date":"2024-03-19","block":19470539,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":52,"adjusted_eth":28.8196},{"eth":26.79,"date":"2024-06-23","block":20153213,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":198,"adjusted_eth":30.1475}],"comparables":[{"eth":35.9,"date":"2026-10-09","punk":8159,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.1899,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-09-17","punk":1607,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.8385,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.4,"date":"2026-07-21","punk":4256,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3021,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.6,"date":"2026-07-04","punk":1607,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.9869,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.5,"date":"2026-05-14","punk":1812,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.605,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.1,"date":"2026-04-01","punk":1812,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.0155,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.1,"date":"2026-04-01","punk":1812,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.0155,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.89,"date":"2026-02-26","punk":7463,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0453,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.14,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Headband","sales_12m":48},{"attribute":"Medical Mask","sales_12m":12},{"attribute":"Horned Rim Glasses","sales_12m":50}],"summary":["Estimate 37.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 33.3 to 41.7 ETH, 2σ range 29.7 to 46.7 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Earring -2%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/2452","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}