{"punk":2458,"name":"CryptoPunk #2458","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/2458","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/2458.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Shadow Beard","Knitted Cap"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":32.6955,"usd":74337,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.1773,"high_eth":35.424,"low_usd":68612,"high_usd":80541},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.853,"high_eth":38.3801,"low_usd":63327,"high_usd":87262},"sigma_log":0.0801,"multiple_of_floor":1.0759,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":32.2652,"usd":73359,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.7801,"high_eth":34.9577,"low_usd":67709,"high_usd":79481},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.4864,"high_eth":37.8749,"low_usd":62494,"high_usd":86113},"sigma_log":0.0801,"multiple_of_floor":1.0759,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":54,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":54,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":102.4}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.11,"date":"2018-09-22","block":6381196,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":172,"adjusted_eth":29.99},{"eth":9.5,"date":"2021-02-19","block":11890205,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":29,"adjusted_eth":22.5221},{"eth":12.65,"date":"2021-02-20","block":11894857,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":253,"adjusted_eth":28.0187},{"eth":19,"date":"2021-04-11","block":12216705,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":98,"adjusted_eth":28.8511},{"eth":21.99,"date":"2021-04-14","block":12239945,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":61,"adjusted_eth":32.5669},{"eth":93.55,"date":"2021-08-27","block":13106811,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":141,"adjusted_eth":30.4953},{"eth":120,"date":"2021-08-30","block":13123636,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":210,"adjusted_eth":30.3722},{"eth":124.5,"date":"2021-08-30","block":13129625,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":88,"adjusted_eth":31.5111},{"eth":0,"date":"2023-01-25","block":16484956,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":154,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2023-02-01","block":16532722,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":129,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":53.69,"date":"2023-07-12","block":17675525,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":304,"adjusted_eth":31.916}],"comparables":[{"eth":40.4,"date":"2026-11-01","punk":7440,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":39.842,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.92,"date":"2026-08-03","punk":5322,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.4628,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.5,"date":"2026-05-12","punk":7440,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":40.0475,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38.69,"date":"2026-02-02","punk":3355,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.5436,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":50,"date":"2025-09-16","punk":8781,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":30.6333,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":63,"date":"2025-07-29","punk":3355,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.6619,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":46.5,"date":"2025-06-03","punk":5322,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.7302,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":49.55,"date":"2025-05-26","punk":5322,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.759,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0098,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Shadow Beard","sales_12m":57},{"attribute":"Knitted Cap","sales_12m":49}],"summary":["Estimate 32.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 30.2 to 35.4 ETH, 2σ range 27.9 to 38.4 ETH, confidence High, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/2458","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}