{"punk":2486,"name":"CryptoPunk #2486","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/2486","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/2486.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Earring","Frumpy Hair","Purple Eye Shadow"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":29.9361,"usd":72538,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.3789,"high_eth":31.5788,"low_usd":68764,"high_usd":76518},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.9027,"high_eth":33.3117,"low_usd":65187,"high_usd":80717},"sigma_log":0.0534,"multiple_of_floor":0.9851,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T08:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":29.9361,"usd":72538,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.3789,"high_eth":31.5788,"low_usd":68764,"high_usd":76518},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.9027,"high_eth":33.3117,"low_usd":65187,"high_usd":80717},"sigma_log":0.0534,"multiple_of_floor":0.9851,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T08:04:35.000Z","block":26354496,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":44,"stale":false,"label":"as of 08:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T08:04:35.000Z","block":26354496,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":44,"stale":false,"label":"as of 08:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":405,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0245,"term":"attr:Purple Eye Shadow","label":"Purple Eye Shadow","sales_12m":35,"weighted_sales":15.4}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.32,"date":"2019-01-24","block":7120733,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":19,"adjusted_eth":32.5244},{"eth":0.35,"date":"2019-12-08","block":9068921,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":133,"adjusted_eth":28.7473},{"eth":0.37,"date":"2019-12-08","block":9074282,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":17,"adjusted_eth":30.39},{"eth":20.98,"date":"2021-05-02","block":12351618,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":158,"adjusted_eth":29.6688},{"eth":79,"date":"2022-07-16","block":15155863,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":24,"adjusted_eth":28.7867},{"eth":65.08,"date":"2022-10-22","block":15806424,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":25,"adjusted_eth":29.5279},{"eth":66.97,"date":"2022-10-23","block":15814061,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":75,"adjusted_eth":30.3991},{"eth":53,"date":"2024-01-10","block":18976071,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":47,"adjusted_eth":29.8327},{"eth":47.99,"date":"2025-05-13","block":22476078,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":76,"adjusted_eth":30.39},{"eth":49.49,"date":"2025-07-24","block":22991396,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":282,"adjusted_eth":30.086},{"eth":29,"date":"2026-10-26","block":26273712,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":1059,"adjusted_eth":28.8955}],"comparables":[{"eth":35.99,"date":"2025-11-24","punk":5108,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.316,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":54,"date":"2025-07-29","punk":8399,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9751,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":36,"date":"2026-10-31","punk":6370,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.9763,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.75,"date":"2026-06-16","punk":628,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5071,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.79,"date":"2026-06-05","punk":2659,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2409,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.899,"date":"2026-05-15","punk":2659,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3296,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29,"date":"2026-01-02","punk":839,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4866,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2025-12-01","punk":1910,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.7735,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0245,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Earring","sales_12m":303},{"attribute":"Frumpy Hair","sales_12m":59}],"summary":["Estimate 29.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.4 to 31.6 ETH, 2σ range 26.9 to 33.3 ETH, confidence High, as of 08:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 08:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Purple Eye Shadow -2%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[{"sale_day":"2026-10-26","estimate_date":"2026-10-25","price_eth":29,"est_eth":29.591,"low1":27.9442,"high1":31.335,"low2":26.389,"high2":33.1817,"z":-0.35,"confidence":"High","source":"native-buy","prospective":true,"model_version":"est-v2-202610","z_text":"0.4σ below the estimate"}],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/2486","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}