{"punk":2490,"name":"CryptoPunk #2490","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/2490","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/2490.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Shadow Beard","Vampire Hair","Pipe","Small Shades"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":30.3339,"usd":73502,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.5896,"high_eth":33.3513,"low_usd":66852,"high_usd":80813},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.0935,"high_eth":36.6688,"low_usd":60804,"high_usd":88852},"sigma_log":0.0948,"multiple_of_floor":0.9982,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.3339,"usd":73502,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.5896,"high_eth":33.3513,"low_usd":66852,"high_usd":80813},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.0935,"high_eth":36.6688,"low_usd":60804,"high_usd":88852},"sigma_log":0.0948,"multiple_of_floor":0.9982,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":34,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":34,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":745,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":68,"ask_usd":152033,"z":8.52,"z_text":"8.5σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2024-03-22T08:28:35.000Z","days_listed":959},"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-10.5,"beta":-0.1109,"term":"attr:Vampire Hair","label":"Vampire Hair","sales_12m":18,"weighted_sales":6.5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.4,"date":"2019-06-20","block":7998072,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":39,"adjusted_eth":28.0092},{"eth":1,"date":"2020-01-16","block":9290543,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":90,"adjusted_eth":52.3966},{"eth":4.4,"date":"2020-09-23","block":10918639,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":115,"adjusted_eth":62.1935},{"eth":6,"date":"2020-12-25","block":11524658,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":85,"adjusted_eth":41.4409},{"eth":5.069,"date":"2021-01-07","block":11607268,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":105,"adjusted_eth":32.8458},{"eth":55,"date":"2022-06-01","block":14885308,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":48,"adjusted_eth":34.153}],"comparables":[{"eth":48.13,"date":"2025-10-10","punk":4765,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5359,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":33.49,"date":"2026-09-02","punk":4255,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3201,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":45.5,"date":"2026-06-30","punk":2276,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":43.2513,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.79,"date":"2026-06-28","punk":4255,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.6612,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.8,"date":"2026-05-10","punk":8492,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.165,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.9,"date":"2026-05-01","punk":8492,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3228,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.5,"date":"2026-04-28","punk":8492,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":30.016,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-03-30","punk":4126,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.5083,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0655,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Shadow Beard","sales_12m":55},{"attribute":"Pipe","sales_12m":32},{"attribute":"Small Shades","sales_12m":44}],"summary":["Estimate 30.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 27.6 to 33.4 ETH, 2σ range 25.1 to 36.7 ETH, confidence Low, as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 10:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Vampire Hair -11%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/2490","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}