{"punk":2511,"name":"CryptoPunk #2511","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/2511","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/2511.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Earring","Mohawk"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":29.499,"usd":67070,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.8912,"high_eth":32.3596,"low_usd":61141,"high_usd":73574},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.5141,"high_eth":35.4976,"low_usd":55736,"high_usd":80708},"sigma_log":0.0926,"multiple_of_floor":0.9707,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.1107,"usd":66187,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.5373,"high_eth":31.9337,"low_usd":60336,"high_usd":72605},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.1914,"high_eth":35.0304,"low_usd":55002,"high_usd":79646},"sigma_log":0.0926,"multiple_of_floor":0.9707,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":5,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":5,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":102.4},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":306,"weighted_sales":71.1},{"pct":-7.6,"beta":-0.0788,"term":"attr:Mohawk","label":"Mohawk","sales_12m":75,"weighted_sales":16}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":19.5,"date":"2021-03-24","block":12102487,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":81,"adjusted_eth":28.9507},{"eth":14.5,"date":"2021-06-20","block":12669603,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":303,"adjusted_eth":29.1263},{"eth":17.85,"date":"2021-07-06","block":12770831,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"round-trip-30d","log_index":273,"adjusted_eth":29.7401},{"eth":18.81,"date":"2021-07-10","block":12798246,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"twin-of-nominal-24h","log_index":112,"adjusted_eth":29.8788},{"eth":0,"date":"2021-07-10","block":12798253,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":147,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":19,"date":"2021-07-20","block":12865582,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":101,"adjusted_eth":28.8511},{"eth":20.99,"date":"2021-07-25","block":12892843,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":91,"adjusted_eth":29.99},{"eth":0,"date":"2021-07-29","block":12921596,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":224,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":68.45,"date":"2021-12-26","block":13882771,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"twin-of-nominal-24h","log_index":2,"adjusted_eth":29.7941},{"eth":0,"date":"2021-12-26","block":13882771,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":6,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2024-05-16","block":19880126,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":340,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2024-05-16","block":19880126,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":356,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":37.97,"date":"2024-11-17","block":21205731,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":222,"adjusted_eth":30.7845}],"comparables":[{"eth":28.5,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":9132,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9963,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.2,"date":"2026-09-25","punk":7591,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.5538,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.6,"date":"2026-07-19","punk":8992,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.6869,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.869,"date":"2026-07-12","punk":2957,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.2356,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.25,"date":"2026-07-03","punk":2957,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":30.7388,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-05-16","punk":4777,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.9719,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-04-10","punk":9110,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.1436,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.69,"date":"2026-03-20","punk":2271,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.2532,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0931,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 29.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 26.9 to 32.4 ETH, 2σ range 24.5 to 35.5 ETH, confidence High, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Earring -2%, Mohawk -8%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/2511","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}