{"punk":2525,"name":"CryptoPunk #2525","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/2525","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/2525.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Black Lipstick","Earring","Tassle Hat","Cigarette"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":29.995,"usd":72680,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.3852,"high_eth":31.696,"low_usd":68780,"high_usd":76802},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.8619,"high_eth":33.4935,"low_usd":65089,"high_usd":81157},"sigma_log":0.0552,"multiple_of_floor":0.987,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","basis":"daily close"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":29.995,"usd":72680,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.3852,"high_eth":31.696,"low_usd":68780,"high_usd":76802},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.8619,"high_eth":33.4935,"low_usd":65089,"high_usd":81157},"sigma_log":0.0552,"multiple_of_floor":0.987,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"daily close","as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","block":null,"eth":30.39,"punk":null,"public_asks":null,"age_minutes":57,"stale":false,"label":"as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"daily close","as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","block":null,"eth":30.39,"punk":null,"public_asks":null,"age_minutes":57,"stale":false,"label":"as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":{"ask_eth":50,"ask_usd":111789,"z":9.26,"z_text":"9.3σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2026-06-10T18:46:47.000Z","days_listed":148},"argument":{"cell":"Female 4+","terms":[{"pct":-2.2,"beta":-0.0225,"term":"attr:Cigarette","label":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110,"weighted_sales":14.2}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 4+","seen":{"n":135,"cover1":0.6,"cover2":0.815,"bias_pct":-0.9,"within10":0.763,"within25":0.933,"MdALE_pct":4.5},"thin":false,"sigma":0.054,"selection":{"n":177,"cover1":0.712,"cover2":0.921,"bias_pct":-0.5,"within10":0.819,"within25":0.966,"MdALE_pct":3.4}},"own_sales":[],"comparables":[{"eth":53.5,"date":"2025-04-02","punk":588,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.1748,"shared_attributes":4},{"eth":32.45,"date":"2026-03-20","punk":6665,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.6141,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":31.3,"date":"2026-03-05","punk":6665,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":31.8662,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":29.35,"date":"2026-01-15","punk":2127,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5775,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":35.99,"date":"2025-11-24","punk":5108,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.316,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":75,"date":"2025-08-10","punk":3961,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.9751,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":53.99,"date":"2025-08-09","punk":8774,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8482,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":51,"date":"2025-08-05","punk":8774,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":30.095,"shared_attributes":3}],"premium_log":-0.0225,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Black Lipstick","sales_12m":95},{"attribute":"Earring","sales_12m":303},{"attribute":"Tassle Hat","sales_12m":13}],"summary":["Estimate 30.0 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.4 to 31.7 ETH, 2σ range 26.9 to 33.5 ETH, confidence Low, as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Cigarette -2%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 4+ sales landed within ±3.4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/2525","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}