{"punk":2534,"name":"CryptoPunk #2534","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/2534","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/2534.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Luxurious Beard","Shaved Head"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":30.3088,"usd":73441,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.7946,"high_eth":33.0504,"low_usd":67349,"high_usd":80084},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.4889,"high_eth":36.04,"low_usd":61762,"high_usd":87328},"sigma_log":0.0866,"multiple_of_floor":0.9973,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.3088,"usd":73441,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.7946,"high_eth":33.0504,"low_usd":67349,"high_usd":80084},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.4889,"high_eth":36.04,"low_usd":61762,"high_usd":87328},"sigma_log":0.0866,"multiple_of_floor":0.9973,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":34,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":34,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":745,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0758,"term":"attr:Shaved Head","label":"Shaved Head","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":12.5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.3,"date":"2019-04-05","block":7510287,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":35,"adjusted_eth":26.8147},{"eth":0.3,"date":"2019-07-29","block":8247996,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":55,"adjusted_eth":23.3769},{"eth":0.39,"date":"2019-10-15","block":8743116,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":18,"adjusted_eth":47.4084},{"eth":90,"date":"2021-09-12","block":13209594,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":146,"adjusted_eth":33.3589},{"eth":159.99,"date":"2021-10-02","block":13336830,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":72,"adjusted_eth":39.3851},{"eth":125,"date":"2022-01-25","block":14076180,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":25,"adjusted_eth":48.7332},{"eth":80,"date":"2022-03-21","block":14427360,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":506,"adjusted_eth":33.5338},{"eth":70,"date":"2022-10-22","block":15803000,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":2,"adjusted_eth":31.7602},{"eth":73.37,"date":"2022-11-28","block":16071883,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":79,"adjusted_eth":33.7938},{"eth":53.99,"date":"2025-07-29","block":23024978,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":16,"adjusted_eth":30.9693},{"eth":54.995,"date":"2025-07-29","block":23025030,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":47,"adjusted_eth":31.5458},{"eth":28,"date":"2025-12-24","block":24079067,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":607,"adjusted_eth":31.6445}],"comparables":[{"eth":37,"date":"2026-11-01","punk":6406,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.9757,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-05-22","punk":6694,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7697,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39,"date":"2026-02-21","punk":6406,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":39.7721,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":56,"date":"2025-08-14","punk":4577,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":33.5702,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":51.4949,"date":"2025-07-20","punk":6406,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.1202,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":46.69,"date":"2025-07-16","punk":9274,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.044,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":44.99,"date":"2025-07-14","punk":9274,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3609,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42.5,"date":"2025-07-14","punk":9274,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":30.5698,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0663,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Luxurious Beard","sales_12m":41}],"summary":["Estimate 30.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 27.8 to 33.1 ETH, 2σ range 25.5 to 36.0 ETH, confidence High, as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 10:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Shaved Head -7%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/2534","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}